There is still a very long time to go, but already now (May 2022) it is possible to trade on the April 2024 contract. Monday, May 23, the first contract traded at €20. Never before has the first contract been traded as the 'picket post' at such a high starting level.
The first contract of the coming season (April 2023) started at around €18,90 the year before and the starting point for the April 2022 contract was €14,70. The course of the previous season (read: the mood) partly determines the price at which the first contracts of a new season are traded. In current times, cost is an important factor. Growing chip potatoes in Western Europe, harvesting them and storing them for a number of months at a cost of much less than €20 is not interesting today. Especially now that potato cultivation, especially in countries such as Germany and France, will face competition from wheat cultivation.
The market price of potatoes in price-technically 'reasonable' years - such as 2015 and until the corona outbreak in 2019 and now also in the 2021 harvest year - was between the level of €16 and €21. Outliers due to weather excesses occurred in 2016 (flooding) and 2018 (drought) with settlement prices at €22,10 (2016) and €27,90 (2018).
Which level is realistic?
The question for the coming harvest year, but also for the years that follow, is what level can be realistic in price-technically 'reasonable' years. Taking the cost price factor into account, a price range of €21 to €25 should be feasible. Many factors naturally determine the course of the market and what is important is how the processors have hedged themselves and/or when they should enter the market. Last season that moment only came after the settlement of the April 2022 contract, before then the potato market was set in stone.
Although there is no expectation, a market price development below cost price could certainly also be the case for the 2022 harvest. An above-average potato harvest, which means that buyers do not have to enter the market, is always a lurking scenario, such as the 2011, 2014 and 2017 harvest years. most recently in 2. In other words: a higher cost price for potato cultivation certainly does not guarantee higher prices. In that sense, the market follows its own course.{{dataviewSnapshot(1653400429_XNUMX)}}