The first signs of a calmer potato market were already present last week. This continued this week into a very calm market in which little or no free trades were actually made. Of course there are the co-delivery kilos for the PAT list, which are settled at the stock price level, but there is actually no demand for free potatoes this week.
It seems that the increase that was started six weeks ago by the Belgian industry has come to a standstill. Belgian processors still had a gap to fill in their position and were able to fill this reasonably by ultimately paying €25. The Dutch industry followed this increase, but was clearly less hungry for potatoes than its Belgian competitors. Now that the Belgians have filled most of their position deficit and are taking it easy on the market, the market immediately comes to a standstill.
Additional offer expected
Due to the warm weeks, growers who have waited in recent weeks due to the rising market now seem to be trying to do business, but they are encountering a wait-and-see attitude from the trade and industry. The heat seems to create a more compelling supply of potatoes that are not mechanically cooled, which is more likely to lead to extra pressure. Exports are also clearly calmer due to rapidly rising prices and high transport costs. This means that this market is also not causing commotion. Southern Europe is switching to new harvests and imports from Egypt. This means that exports from Northern Europe have come to a standstill.
There is no shortage of potatoes
According to stock measurements, it appears that there are still enough potatoes in storage to keep the fryers running until week 29. What is striking is that it is mainly contracted potatoes that are still in storage, something which explains why Dutch processors, for example, are less hungry. French fries sales are going very well, and chip prices also seem to be keeping up with the increased costs for the processors. That won't be the reason for the potato market.
Is the devil in the tail?
The demand is mainly for potatoes and this seems to have been pushed into the background with the arrival of the rain last weekend. The rain in the early cultivation areas ensures that processors are less concerned about the connection with the new season. Some processors even report that they are considering switching to the new harvest a week earlier than planned. Something that will also result in less demand for the last free potatoes. However, there are still at least six weeks to go, and a potato is round and can roll strangely…