This is how the potatoes in Europe are doing

It has been dry for months in large parts of Europe. Earlier this summer, this mainly occurred in southern European countries, but Northwestern and Central Europe are now also experiencing the consequences. A very low precipitation level moves through the crops like a silent killer. In addition, during the extremely high temperatures of two weeks ago, a war of wear and tear started, which is getting more and more grip on the potatoes in the current weather.

Futures market is moving, physical market is waiting
These weather developments do not leave the market cold either. The April 2023 contract on the EEX easily broke through the €1 per 25 kilo barrier on Monday, August 100, before moving on to €26,90 on Wednesday. Thursday morning the price touched a top of €28,50 and in the afternoon the April contract fluctuates above €27. Things are calming down in the physical market. PotatoNL put its first quotation for the new harvest on the plates this week from €20 to €21. Looking at the Belgapom quotation and DCA PAT Index, the €20 is also maintained there. Processors are in the process of fulfilling their obligations and are in the market very little.

Now the first trial harvesting figures announced (sampled at the end of July) for the main crop of chips potatoes. These confirm the image that the crops are at an advanced stage in their growth. This is reflected in the high underwater weights. The picture of the revenues varies and differs per region. The differences between irrigated and non-irrigated can also be significant. Below we discuss the situation per country.

The Netherlands: major differences between south, center and north
July was warm and above average dry. The differences between south and north in particular are very large. More fell in the northern part of our country precipitation then in the south and southeast. North Brabant and Limburg in particular have to contend with little rain. The maximum temperatures were also at a slightly lower level in the north, where 40 degrees was tapped in the south. The early varieties have declined after this heat shock. Plots that are frequently irrigated look fresher. The consequences are especially noticeable on the headlands and corners where the reel cannot reach. Where it is not possible to irrigate, the crops are now rapidly deteriorating.

Many crops have already been treated with MH (maleic hydrazide). Not every grower saw the opportunity for this due to the high temperatures. Thunderstorms are forecast from Thursday afternoon. That can encourage washing. Insiders are already reporting incidental washing through (white dots on the tubers).

Belgium: crops hit hardest in Flanders
The potato plots in Wallonia are in better shape than those in Flanders, according to the figures published by PCA and Fiwap this week. Never before has Belgium had so few days with precipitation (142 days versus 199 on average). It is very dry in West Flanders, which is a large growing region. The Belgian weather institute KMI expects this situation to expand further in the next ten days. What is striking are the extremely high underwater weights. Sometimes even above 450 grams. Looking at the weather forecasts, the lesser plots in particular will have to choose the next ten days.

France: noticeable wear and tear
The French potato crops survived the first heat period at the end of July. In the meantime, the mercury has again risen above 30 degrees and it is expected that this will also happen next week. Crops that have not been irrigated are particularly affected. In the northwest it is very dry. That is an important growing region for French fries potatoes. Areas where more can be irrigated also have a better position of the crop, but here too it is noticeable that the drought and heat have an impact on growth.

Germany: crops ripen early
Looking at the European weather map, Germany turns red. The main growing regions for chips potatoes, in the border region with the Netherlands and Belgium, are in better shape. There has also been some rainfall recently. An exception is Bavaria, where it has been particularly dry since spring. Only locally were heavy showers, but they usually do more damage than good. The absence of precipitation ensures that the early crops ripen faster and ripen earlier. This has caused a build-up in the market, which is now being revived. The development in the yields is lagging behind, which means that fewer kilos are harvested.

Poland: small harvest due to shrinkage area and weather influences
The Polish statistical office ARIMR has finally published an area figure. That comes to 182.000 hectares compared to 203.000 hectares last year. That means a decrease of more than 10%. The situation in Poland is divided. The north has so far had a better growing season than the south and southwest, thanks to frequent precipitation and lower temperatures. Last weekend, in many places, between 50 and 80 millimeters of precipitation fell, which was very welcome. However, it remains drier than average. With rising temperatures next week, where it will be above 30 degrees for several days, that moisture has evaporated quickly. Here too, the expectation is that yields will lag behind, although the regional differences are large.

United Kingdom: potato shortage threatens
The potato market in the United Kingdom has been pushed more into the background, especially after Brexit. Nevertheless, it is good to reflect on the current situation. It is drier than in 2018. In fact, July was the driest month since 1935, according to the Met Office. Especially in the south and southeast it is extremely dry. It was also extremely hot, with temperatures reaching 40 degrees or more. That is a record for the island. It will remain dry and warm in the first half of August.

It is estimated to come area this year on 109.000 hectares. Official figures are missing since the government service AHDB Potato was stopped. Meanwhile, more and more insiders agree that the yields will be at the 2018 level or even lower. Multiply that by the acreage numbers and the country is looking at a very tight potato crop, just above 4,5 million tons. There is therefore talk of a potential potato shortage. Perhaps it is special to see that the British market remains calm. Growers are reluctant to sell because they first await the final yield.

Crucial in the coming weeks
The next six weeks are crucial for the European French fries potato crops. Varieties such as Fontane can still achieve good yields in the second half of August and early September, but this requires a crop with potential. A wear and tear on the fields in Northwestern Europe reduces the chance of this. The long-term forecast also continues to show a dry weather type. It is dangerous to draw firm conclusions based on only the first trial harvesting figures. A lot can still happen, but it is clear that the current situation has consequences.