The heat and drought have given the potatoes a serious blow. This is not only the case in the Netherlands. A top yield is therefore no longer in line with expectations, although there are major differences between the regions. This gives the grower courage, it is regularly heard that 'it is only a matter of time before the €30 limit is broken'. In practice, the growers' confidence in the potato market is less certain.
From the grower's point of view, the potato market is not in a bad position. Potato yields in the EU-4 and the UK do not seem to be great for the time being. Several trial harvests indicate below average yields. The lower yield expectations are not limited to the EU-4. Things are not easy in Eastern Europe either. A tight supply is usually not unfavorable for the grower. Because Europe is wide, there may be additional opportunities for the export of certain varieties. This offers growers an additional sales opportunity in addition to that of the industry.
In the meantime, the industry emphasizes that it is not all roses and moonshine on the potato market. The processors argue that factories may have to close next winter due to the problems in the gas market. Furthermore, the potato industry points out that the threat of corona has not yet disappeared. These are both valid points, but with a caveat. According to experts, it is entirely possible that certain industries will be forced to close due to a possible gas shortage. You just have to ask yourself whether the food products will not be one of the last to be served. And with corona you can also wonder what the risk is for the potato chain. The last corona wave showed that the demand for fries has held up well.
Trust
Although the free growers want to radiate confidence in the market, they do not seem insensitive to arguments from the industry. That is also understandable. Suppose you harvest 35 net tons at €25, then you are at €8.750 per hectare. It has been a few years since we saw such amounts. And yes, do you wait for €30 or do you take your money's worth? The strange thing is that the same farmers have a very different attitude towards onions and simply keep their legs stiff. The hesitant attitude of the potato growers is also visible on the futures market, which does not really want to get rid of the level of around €27.
Critical growers then shout 'that processors control the futures market'. Whether that is correct or not is actually irrelevant. Apparently the grower feels that he no longer has any influence on the futures market. And that is quite remarkable. On the wheat market, for example, it is also the ABCD companies that do the lion's share of the trade and on the oil market it is not much different with a hand full of oil companies. Yet virtually no one questions the Matif, CBoT or Brent quotation. There, the futures market is seen as a 'pure' market with the most transparent price determination. In fact, these quotes even serve as an important reference in the physical market.