Precipitation does not threaten harvest in Europe yet

After a dry start, September brought a lot precipitation in the Netherlands. In addition, quite a bit of local water fell in the coastal regions at the start of this week. It is mainly an accumulation of precipitation in places where the soil was already completely saturated. The water temperature is relatively high after a warm and sunny summer, causing heavy showers over land.

200 millimeters of water in September
Although the average rainfall deficit in the Netherlands is still 226 millimeters according to the KNMI, the damage has been significantly recovered in the last two weeks. In Zeeland and on the South Holland islands, up to 200 millimeters of water or more fell locally. The first 100 millimeters could still be processed for the plots. Then it got really wet. This has not yet led to major damage. It is mainly low-lying places where potatoes are lost if they are left in the water for too long. Almost all of the onions here were harvested before it started raining. About 100 millimeters fell in the polders and slightly more further north. This hinders the completion phase of the onion harvest, which is far from complete, especially in the Northern Netherlands.

The drought map of the RMI in Belgium now also shows normal values ​​again. The coastal regions, which were previously the driest places, just like in the Netherlands, are seeing between 100 and 200 millimeters of precipitation this month. There is also local flooding there. In any case, the clearing work has come to a standstill. Rain was absolutely necessary to be able to harvest at all without damage. Damage is likely to occur this year, especially with the high underwater weights.

France not too wet
In France the precipitation is not too bad. It has rained in Northern France and along the coast, but not in the quantities that the Netherlands and Belgium have seen. Precipitation was necessary for harvesting. The precipitation in September came too late for the potato crops. The hectare yields are the lowest in twenty years. The main harvest is only now starting. A few dry weeks in October are required to get the harvest in, although less time will be needed to complete the lifting work.

In Germany too, the rain has mainly improved the harvesting work. These days the harvest work sometimes comes to a standstill due to showers, but there are no problems. It is becoming clear - now that the harvest is coming in - that the yields are very different. The frequently irrigated plots perform reasonably well, but where there is no irrigation the hectare yields are simply disappointing. Packers and supermarkets are buying table potatoes because of promotions in retail chains. That ensures a stable situation. There are few available chip potatoes this season and buyers are also keeping quiet. As in other European countries, this market segment is therefore calm and stable.

The picture is similar in Poland. There certainly wasn't too much rain there during September. Depending on the region, between 50 and 80 millimeters, with a small outlier locally. This precipitation is not only necessary for autumn sowing but also for harvesting. Here too the returns are not that bad. Irrigated crops are doing better, but the kilos are lower across the board. Poland en Germany are both missing a million tons of potatoes this year.

Short European harvest
The NEPG currently estimates 20 to 21 million tons of potatoes in the EU-4. That is one to two million tons less than the multi-year average. An average hectare yield of 40 tons per hectare – the same as 2018 – is certainly not an exaggeration. The only difference is that the area has grown by 2018% since 3, which means that in theory more potatoes can be left at the bottom line. Now that more and more potatoes have been harvested, it becomes clear that this quantity is only minimal. The effect of the extra hectares has literally evaporated.

In addition, the processing capacity has grown significantly in five years and the raw material requirement has therefore increased. On the other hand, processors have more price agreements with growers than a few years earlier. It is mainly the Belgian processors who are currently entering the free market. European potato processing is looking at a very tight potato harvest in the EU-4 and Poland. Moreover, the last chapter still needs to be written. The majority of the main harvest is not yet out of the ground. In the coastal areas there is a loss of yield and quality. Further precipitation could cause problems, especially in areas where it is already very wet.