The potato market is currently calm, but the prospects for the coming months remain positive. The fact that the market remains at a stable price level in this off-land period, when the supply is still larger than normal, is good news.
In the somewhat comparable 2018 harvest year, the ex-land period was not much higher. Only when the potatoes were behind the shelves and the storage season started, the market rose towards €30. For example, PotatoNL recorded €2019 at the end of January 2018 (harvest 31,50).
The current 2022 harvest year, like all seasons, stands on its own and with it the pricing. What is special about the 2022/2023 season is the difference in potato harvest in terms of hectare yield spread over the main growing areas of the EU-4 countries. For example, it can be stated with the harvesters in the country in recent weeks that the potato harvest in large parts of the Netherlands, but also in Germany (especially Lower Saxony), on average, is certainly not disappointing. This is in contrast to what is being harvested or will be harvested in Belgium and Northern France. In short: the spread when it comes to hectare yield per country and even per region is considerable.
The fact that the potato harvest in the core cultivation area of Europe (Belgium and Northern France) is particularly disappointing will ensure that the total potato harvest in the EU-4 countries will turn out lower than what it could have been normally (area x average hectare yield). This also explains the favorable prospects for market price developments for the coming months. Insiders indicate that the price increase (apart from the possible negative influence of, for example, the corona vicissitudes, gas prices, etc.) will be gradual. The harvest in large parts of the Netherlands and northern Germany is too good for that. In other words: the necessary stock is available there and with it the supply.
The question is how the large processors in Belgium will approach the potato market. With the purchase price of €25 per 100 kilos applied by buyers in Belgium or a maximum of €26,50 franco for Fontane, for example, the Dutch and German processors cannot lag behind much. One will therefore follow the purchase price of the Belgians with an appropriate negative premium based on transport, €23,00 per 100 kilos in the Northern Netherlands is comparable to €25 in Belgium.