The current day market in the EU-4 countries for potato chips suitable for chips varies from approximately €21 per 100 kg in the Northern Netherlands and Germany for Fontane to €26 for Innovator, for example. For Fontane and also Challenger in, for example, Belgium and Northern France, up to €25 per 100 kg is paid. What's up with that?
The large price difference between, for example, the north and center of the Netherlands and Belgium/northern France clearly indicates the - quite large - difference in the yield per hectare. If you also want to drive potatoes from the Northern regions of the Netherlands to Belgian processors, then the transport costs are such (think of €4 per 100 kg) that the relatively large price difference can be easily explained.
Another point of attention is that the potato market is very responsive to keep it in football terms. In other words, there are few bids that go beyond the turn of the year. Normally, the market is enabled to do business during the ex-land period and at the start of the storage season, for example on delivery in March or April. Today, this (long-term) market is on one ear.
No appealing offers
Belgium in particular is informed about the possibilities, but it does not really come to many and appealing bids. Last week, business was done for Fontane at €28 per 100 kg and Marquis €29 for delivery week 17 of 2023. These are quite decent prices. But in the light of the average daily price paid for French fries potatoes in the EU-4, this is disproportionate. The potatoes will not be delivered for more than six months. Preserving today is not a cheap affair either.
Conclusion: in the current potato market - despite the certainly not abundant potato harvest in the EU-4 countries and especially in the Belgian and northern French growing areas - there is great uncertainty about what will come in the coming months. It is mainly the Belgian processors that have to enter the market, but for the time being they can expect little competition from the processors in the Netherlands and Germany. So waiting to do business until the market hits $30 or higher in the spring may not be such a good idea. Perhaps it is better to participate in the wave movements, of which you have to wonder how high they will eventually become between today and, for example, June 1 next year.