Now that the main harvest of the chips potatoes is well advanced, the contours of the final field yield are becoming increasingly clear. What is left of the dry and occasionally warm growing season?
The past growing season was characterized by a shortage of precipitation that equaled that of 1976. The combination with a heat wave suggested the worst in terms of the expected yield. For growers in many areas it was all hands on deck to keep the crops up and running. Growers who could not irrigate had to sit and watch as their crops deteriorated and showed a substandard yield.
The first trial harvesting results were eagerly anticipated. Remarkably enough, for the Netherlands these did not show the picture that could be expected in a dry and warm growing season. In many cases the results were ahead of other years, which would be due to the earliness of the season. But the subsequent trial harvestings also gave no reason to expect a miserable potato harvest. Other sounds came from Belgium and France, where the drought and heat had been more damaging.
Major price fluctuations
The potato futures market rose from a level of €19,00 to a high of €8 on August 29,90, before falling back to €25,50 in the same week. The belief that the futures market was ready to move above the €30 level was lacking. Since then, the potato futures market has not shown any major price swings and found its way between roughly €27 and €28 with little turnover.
Looking at the physical potato market, it is striking that there is no positive expectation value on the futures market. In recent weeks, the price level of the physical potato market has averaged €25 for direct delivery. Physical selling in the longer term hardly yielded anything extra. Moreover, the limited buying appetite of trade and industry was noticeable, as a result of which the real free grower (who has no connection with a buyer) was hardly served.
Harvest seems less bad
Now that the main harvest is already well advanced, in areas where there were doubts about the yields during the growing season, they ultimately seem to be better than expected. Not that it is good everywhere, but it is less bad. And that creates a dull mood on the potato market. The Belgapom quote today (October 14) already indicated a 'Bland' vote for Fontane and Challenger.{{dataviewSnapshot(2_1665750284)}}
Growing potatoes this season involved high costs. Storage also entails more costs. In view of the costs, growers seem more willing to provide supply, which builds up pressure. This puts a brake on mood and price development. For example, the futures market fell to a low of €14 today (October 25). The potato processing industries have been indicating for some time that uncertainties are playing tricks on them, which is why the purchasing channel is being cautious. Despite the fact that the potato harvest in the EU-4 is not generous, circulating trade is a difficult task.