Europe harvests 3,4% fewer potatoes than in 2018

There has been a lot of speculation throughout the growing season about the final European potato harvest and that of the Netherlands. Is the harvest comparable to the dry 2018 or are the yields not disappointing now? As far as the Netherlands is concerned, the average yield appears to be less low than previously expected. The irrigated plots in particular score well and the kilos grew at least 2 weeks earlier than average this year, which is also evident in the Crop tour potatoes. In addition, we seem to have learned from the 2018 growing season and the irrigation system was installed in time to keep the crop running. This does not alter the fact that there are plots with dramatic yields. Growers who were unable to irrigate sometimes only saw few kilos and saw their crops die prematurely.

3,4% fewer potatoes in the EU
In other European countries, potato yields appear to be significantly disappointing for the time being. Now that the harvest is progressing and more and more countries are publishing their harvest results, a lower potato yield than 2018 seems quite realistic for the EU27. The largest European producers are making a significant reduction compared to last year's harvest, such as Germany (-9,3%), Poland (-14,1%) and France (-20,9%). According to the estimates of the German agricultural market agency AMI, the total EU yield could amount to 45,7 million tons, which is 3,4% lower than the 47,3 million tons in the dry 2018. 

At this time, not all estimates of the yields of the EU countries are known, including those of the Netherlands. Of the 21 EU countries for which estimates are known, the total yield will be 37 million tons in 2022. In the forecast, the AMI assumes that the other 6 countries will harvest 0,3 million tons less, bringing the total yield amounts to 45,7 million tons of potatoes.

Futures market in deep troughs
The potato futures market appears to be paying little attention to the low European potato harvest. The quotation for the April contract for this season rose from €19,00 in July to €28,80 on August 8 and fell to €25,50 the same week. This was followed by fluctuations between €26 and €28. The movement of the futures market is therefore fairly similar to that of 2018, although a quotation above €30 was never achieved. However, since the beginning of October the two lines can no longer be compared. The road has been going down since the beginning of October and today (Thursday October 20) €23,50 is on the board. The very smooth potato harvesting in Europe and speculation about yields that appear to be slightly better are putting pressure on the futures market.