The American potato harvest is again considerably smaller this season. This puts French fries producers in particular in a difficult position because sufficient raw material is difficult to find. Will it create opportunities for European potato processors in the North American market, or will Canada take the win?
While the American potato sector assumed 19 million tons of potatoes this summer, this estimate has now been significantly revised downwards. The most recent yield estimate from the end of October does not exceed 402,1 million cwt. Converted to approximately 18,2 million tons. That is a decrease of 350.000 tons with the 2021 harvest year, or 2% less. That doesn't sound like much, but last year was already the smallest harvest since 2013. The average hectare yield in the thirteen most important potato producing states is estimated at 50 tons per hectare this year. That is 2,2 tons less than the multi-year average and just 200 kilos more than was harvested last season.
Idaho produces less
Since the previous estimate, insiders have already reduced total yields by more than 450.000 tons. Idaho, the largest potato state in particular, supplies fewer potatoes. This is precisely where the majority of (french fries) potatoes are grown. In Idaho, volumes are down 9%. In Washington state, number two in potato chip production, 6,5% less is harvested.
In Idaho, more than 10.000 fewer hectares were planted. Arable farmers often opted for grains or feed crops such as alfalfa because of the attractive price level and lower cultivation costs. A cold and wet spring followed by dry summer months cost quite a bit of yield: an estimated 3 tons per hectare. In Washington, the hectare yield even drops by almost 6 tons per hectare. This is significant for a highly conditioned cultivation such as in North America. A difficult spring and extremely hot summer are also the causes of this. What helps the final volume is the fact that the area - according to the USDA - has increased by 4.000 hectares. Insiders expect that expansion to be slightly smaller, at most 3.200 hectares. The final yield may therefore be lower than currently estimated.
Processor in difficult package
An advantage for potato growers are the favorable harvesting conditions. The temperatures have been fine, sometimes too warm, with persistently dry weather. The quality of the product is good. Because fewer tonnes have been harvested, especially in the chip potato areas (Idaho and Columbia Basin), processors find themselves in a difficult position. They need more raw materials to keep additional lines running. Free tons are therefore quickly purchased where possible. An advantage is the excellent product quality, which means that the processing yield is at a high level.
Canada is also expecting a smaller potato harvest this year. This amounts to an estimated 5,62 million tons. That is a decrease of 1,2% compared to last year, but a record amount of potatoes were harvested in 2021. In the prairie states, almost all of the potatoes have been harvested. Harvesters are only still operating on Prince Edward Island. Arable farmers have planted more chip potatoes this season. It is precisely in these provinces – Alberta and Manitoba – that yields are slightly lower.
Preying on potatoes
Canadian potato processors are much more flexible in terms of potato availability. There is a good chance that American parties will therefore buy up French fries potatoes in the neighboring country and ship them to their factories because of the production shortage there. Canadian chip exports are booming. In the second quarter, almost a fifth more were exported. European players are also benefiting from tight markets in the US. In August, 10% more fries were exported by Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. Given the North American production, strong demand for fries from the US will be maintained in the 2022/23 season.