The drought of last summer appears to have had little influence on the growth of the potatoes. At least that is the picture that emerges from the preliminary harvest estimate of Statistics Netherlands. The calculators expect the total Dutch gross potato harvest to be almost 20% higher compared to last year.
Based on the provisional figures, CBS expects the total potato harvest to be 3,9 million tons. That is 19,4% higher than last year's harvest when the gross yield remained at 3,3 million tons. The five-year average is 3,6 million tons. 2017 will increase that average due to the large harvest of 4 million tons. The potato yield in 2022 is the same as in 2014 and 2011.
According to Statistics Netherlands, the average gross yield per hectare this season is 51,3 tons. The yield per hectare is therefore almost 10% higher than last year when an average of 46,7 tons per hectare was harvested. The average hectare yield this season is also above the five-year average of 47,4 tons per hectare. The potato yield will therefore be good in 2022, but will not yet break any records. In 2017 the harvest was 52,8 tons per hectare and in 2014 52,3 tons per hectare. In addition to the good yields per hectare, the area has also grown compared to last year. Potatoes were grown on 76.600 hectares this year. The potato area is therefore 7,3% larger than last year. This together ensures a significant jump in the total potato harvest compared to last year.
With reservation
The CBS yield figures have been estimated by cultivation advice experts based on the latest available information. The expected national hectare yields can vary greatly regionally, CBS warns. The final harvest estimate is based on a survey among almost 5.000 growers. It would not be the first time that the provisional harvest estimate has been significantly adjusted in the final estimate. CBS does send a clear signal. Many growers, processors and other players alluded more or less to an average harvest due to the consequences of the drought last summer. According to Statistics Netherlands, the drought appears to have played only a limited role in the final potato yield. The preliminary forecast shows that a possible potato shortage this season will not be too bad. It remains to be seen how the market will react to this. Reasonably, the figures would have a dampening effect on the market.