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Analysis Potatoes

The further from the factory, the lower the potato price

28 October 2022 - 13 comments

Although the processors are fairly well distributed throughout Europe (particularly the western part), many kilometers are still traveled from the loading of the potatoes to processing. This is taking on a new dimension due to the significantly higher transport costs resulting from the rising diesel prices. More can be made for a batch of potatoes that is closer to the factory in terms of distance than for a batch that has to cover a greater distance.

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This is also reflected in the quotations. For example, there is a large spread in the PotatoNL quotation, especially for fries suitable for 40 mm upwards. category 1. On Monday, October 24, prices ranged from €20,50 to €26,50, a spread of no less than €5 per 100 kilos. The bottom of the ranking is determined by potatoes that are perfectly suitable for fries, which basically make no difference to the potatoes for which more is made. Except that the higher priced potatoes are apparently closer to the factory.

Organization
Apart from the transport issue, the large difference in the quotations is also determined by the fact that buyers pay a higher price to growers from their own circle than to a grower who does not belong to the permanent group. Paying a little more for that part of the potatoes that is delivered above the contract volume is also no problem. The input that can be seen on the PAT and only comes from the processors, therefore shows the top end of the market price. The bottom of the PotatoNL quotation is not reflected on the PAT, these are apparently purchased and contributed by other parties.

It is clear that this gives a somewhat distorted picture of where the market (if you can talk about it today) exactly lies today. A DCA PAT Index based on the current market at €24,70 and a futures market for the April 2023 contract at just €24. A strange development to say the least, which rather gives the impression that with the next season in mind, the market should not drop much further. A shrinkage of the area in the EU-4 countries is not desirable to meet the sharply increased appetite of processors in recent years.

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