The chip potato market is completely paralyzed by all the uncertainties in the world. Both the physical and the potato futures markets have come to a standstill. Although some transactions are reported on the PAT, these are generally potatoes that already had a fixed destination and only had to put a price on it.
This 'price sticking' still happens around the €25 per 100 kilo level. These amounts cannot be made for potatoes for which no fixed agreement has yet been made. For example, the average current market price for Fontane is a maximum of €22,50 per 100 kilos. That amounts to about €26,50 per 100 kilos, if you add the transport costs to drive them from the North and Central Netherlands to Belgium or France.
So in that sense, potatoes are purchased with final destination Belgium and France. However, trade and therefore the mood when it comes to Dutch, but also German industry, is on one ear. Particularly in the growing areas of the Northern and Central Netherlands as well as Northern Germany, the potato harvest is better than previously expected, so that processors do not or hardly have to go to the market. After all, they have secured enough potatoes for this period.
Expectations not bad but there are no buyers
The mood towards the first half of 2023 is certainly not negative. The expectation is that demand will continue due to the moderate (Belgium) to even very moderate (France) potato harvest. The point is that today the supply in the Netherlands and Germany in particular is more than sufficient, so that the quotations generally indicate the mood calmly. That in itself makes sense, but there is virtually no purchasing interest for delivery later in the season. At least, interest on which some premium can be made. In that sense, whatever we think of the price level around €24, the futures market is the only 'buyer'.
The professional parties are keeping aloof from the market during this period. Apparently the uncertainty is too great, which means that no €2023 can be offered for Fontane for free or co-delivery potatoes on March 26,50, for example. Will processing continue at full speed or will there be limitations due to (who knows) gas restrictions? Will sales of fries remain sufficient with the high inflation figures? Is the corona specter rearing its head again? Will the war in Ukraine escalate further and what effect will that have on the market? In short, so many uncertainties that, as mentioned, have a paralyzing effect on the potato market for the 2022/2023 season. The paralyzing effect and the absence of any market forces, especially for spring trade, can also have further consequences towards the 2023 harvest year when it comes to confidence in the risky potato cultivation. In this sense, a current wheat price for the 2023 harvest will be the subject of much discussion.