The mood does not want to get into the potato market. The industry seems to be fine with the current price level and has, as it were, brought the market to a standstill. In a way, quite a bold choice. Growers are confronted with a significant cost price increase in potato cultivation and feel they have an alternative with wheat and maize, for example.
The potato market, in which virtually nothing is currently happening, is continuing to bottom out. On average, depending on the variety and region where the potatoes are grown, between €22 (Northern Netherlands) and €23 per 100 kilos (Southern Netherlands) are paid for Fontane to €26 for Agria and Innovator. There is no indication that the market will decline further in the coming weeks. On the other hand, little is expected towards the turn of the year with regard to higher market prices. In that sense, most buyers seem to have their positions in place this year.
Because the market feels rather sluggish today, Belgian processors in particular are trying to secure some potatoes for delivery in the first months of 2023. If there is little to no demand today, a seller might do some business for for example €24 per 100 kilos of Fontane ex farm for delivery in February. In short, because the current market is almost dead and demand is shifted to later in the season, you could easily copy the market picture in the first months of 2023.
Dead market
A not very cheering thought. In this sense, a market will see more movement if it turns out that the current price level (average €23,50) has proven to be too high and there is a decline to, say, €20 or lower, although this is not in line with expectations. On the other hand, a market can also move if demand versus supply (logically) increases, creating a more competitive picture. This competitive picture for the market, and especially for growers, but also for pools, etc., is not much improved by shifting demand to spring.
Still, all in all a striking development. All stakeholders are already looking at the coming harvest year. What will growers do with the acreage given the current market prices of, for example, wheat and corn? What is a realistic contact price for the 2023/24 season? In other words: how is the potato area in the EU-4 countries maintained at the desired level? A lot to worry about as customers. The fact that there is a 'dead' market today is apparently not an issue.