Although one swallow does not make summer yet, the potato market is cautiously looking up again with just a short month to go before the turn of the year. In the reports at the end of last week it became more clear that the market was bottoming out, prompted by the fact that the various quotations in the EU-4 countries did not fall further.
The quotations remained unchanged in the past week, but it is expected that there will be little change until the beginning of January. The transactions on the PAT make this clear, but also from the reports on the DCA Transaction App it appears that Fontane can be made up to €23,50 per 100 kilos from the South of the Netherlands. As you move towards the north of the Netherlands, you pay less. Due to the decreasing sucking effect of Belgian industry as the distance increases, there is an increasing price difference between the north, center and south of the Netherlands. Due to the calm nature of the current market, buyers from Belgium in particular have been able to entice sellers to do business for delivery in the first months of 2023. Consider, for example, Fontane delivery in February for €24 to €24,50 from the South of the Netherlands.
Big hole
The demand for Innovator remains as high as ever. For direct delivery, depending on the region, up to €26 per 100 kilos is paid. In that sense, the Innovator variety has been keeping the potato market going in recent weeks. A price difference of, for example, more than €4 between Innovator and Fontane/Challenger is then not entirely realistic.
Given the history, the potato market is expected to end the year at a quiet pace. This trend will normally continue until the first weeks of 2023. The hunger for potatoes, especially from the Belgium and Northern France region, versus the available stock may trigger a move towards a higher market price sooner. If steps are taken, things can move quickly. From a current Belgapom quotation of €22,50 per 100 kilos for Fontane and Challenger to €25 and higher, also depending on the spring. In that sense, the futures market for the April 2023 contract already somewhat implies this direction, with a significant floor price at €24, with a next step towards €26 quickly made.