Four years in a row, the potato yield in the United States fell, although the acreage did not always decrease. A healthy market for chips and other potato products demands more potatoes. It is up to the potato industry in the USA to turn the tide in 2023. How many hectares are arable farmers willing to plant?
Just like in Europe, the calculator is also the American potato grower's best tool. In 2022, growers have chosen to plant fewer potatoes. The area has decreased by 8.500 hectares. Higher cultivation costs and financially favorable alternatives led to that decision. What also plays a role here is that not enough water for irrigation was available in all cultivation areas.
Unique situation
Potato yields in the US have declined for the fourth year in a row, which is exceptional. In recent history, it has only happened twice that potato yields decreased two years in a row. The last time this happened was in 1979 and 1980. A decline of four years in a row is therefore unique.
A decline in production cannot always be traced back to the area. In 2019 and 2021, the area increased, but the growing season caused the final yield to decrease. Especially in the two states where the vast majority of potatoes are grown (Washington and Idaho), the yield has been disappointing for the second year in a row. A wet spring and a hot and dry summer also leave their mark on American potato crops. These differences in the (hectare) yields are clearly visible in the total figures. This is common in Europe, but not in the US.
Area increase
A law in the potato sector is that - in a year with a tight harvest - the area increases in the following year. After the last double decline, the American acreage even rose 8,6%. The minimum increase is 4%. If this bandwidth is the guideline, it means that the area could increase by between 2023 and 14.500 hectares in 31.500.
Even more important is the yield. If the 2023 harvest can return to the multi-year average (52,65 tons per hectare), the potato harvest could increase by 12% to 17% compared to 2022. This is an exceptional increase that is the largest in almost thirty years. would mean. This means overproduction and great price pressure are on the horizon.
Good price
The price for free potatoes is currently very good. The Growers Return Index – an indicator of financial return – is currently 110% above last season at $24,21 per cwt. This translates to €506,92 per tonne. Given the ambition of the potato processors and the good demand for end product, an increase in the area is very likely. It is not yet known what factories do with their contract prices, but they also have to participate in the increase in cultivation costs.
Europe benefits double from an American potato sector that is failing. On the one hand, because Belgium and the Netherlands sell more fries in the US itself. On the other hand, there are also gaps in the export scene, which can potentially be covered by Northwestern Europe.