For the third year in a row, Poland has to count on a sharp decrease in potato production. The area also continues to decrease. This has major consequences for the potato supply in the country. Despite increased prices for 2023, many growers no longer see any benefit in it.
The Polish statistical agency GUS published a new estimate for the total Polish potato yield in January. This is now estimated at 6,16 million tons of potatoes in total, across all segments. At a good 30 tons per hectare, the yield is the same as in 2021, but a significantly reduced area means that production is lagging behind.
Record low
More than 2021 million tons of potatoes were harvested in 7. This will remain at 2022 million tons in 6,16. The smallest harvest in years and lower than the disastrously bad year 2019, when 6,5 million tons (from 308.000 hectares) were harvested. The area of 200.000 hectares shrank by 15% last year. Of this, approximately 125.000 hectares are 'professional' cultivation.
Insiders expect that another reduction can be recorded in 2023, based on the mood of potato growers in the country. Another 15% reduction means 170.700 hectares of potatoes. The bottom line is probably somewhere between 160.000 and 170.000 hectares, depending on the market.
The official figures include table potatoes as well as starch, chips and seed potatoes. This also includes the cultivation of potatoes for consumption, which are (to a decreasing extent) grown by Polish citizens in their gardens. It is estimated that this cultivation, together with the cultivation for local markets, still accounts for almost a million tons of potatoes. Poland is a real potato country, but consumption is declining. Major retailers in the country are making frantic efforts to make potatoes popular again, but it is not easy. The disappointing quality of potatoes suitable for laundry is certainly an obstacle this season because the growing conditions were very erratic.
Polish origin
An additional obstacle is that - under political pressure - almost exclusively Polish products are allowed in the supermarket. Small volumes are imported from Southern Europe in piecemeal fashion, but apart from these prime potatoes, it is all Polish product of often mediocre quality. Due to a lack of good table potato varieties, even Fontanes are sometimes packaged for retail, says an insider.
Among professional growers, the French fries and chips industry are fighting for acreage. Both are looking for sufficient acreage. The relatively high grain and rapeseed prices have caused Polish arable farmers to focus more on this. The improved prospects for sugar beets are also attractive. Capital-intensive cultivation with a lot of labor (irrigation) is then quickly phased out. It is not uncommon to see growers with 500 hectares of potatoes reduced to 150 hectares or less in a year or two.
Chip potatoes interesting
The contract prices that French fries producers offer for the 2023 harvest year are at a slightly lower level than in Western Europe. For Innovator, the ex-land price is €18 to €19 per 100 kilos, depending on the factory. The ex-land price of potato chips is a lot higher at more than €22 and is therefore an attractive alternative. Pepsico is rapidly building a new factory in the southwest, near the city of Wrocław, and needs potatoes for it. In order to have sufficient raw materials, processors also look across the border to Germany and the Czech Republic.
Table potato prices are at a much lower level and fluctuate between €18 and €26 sorted and bagged. The price for field crops is therefore several euros lower. A switch from table potatoes to the industry is therefore estimated for 2023. This was also visible last year. While the large potato growers are significantly reducing their acreage, it is mainly small companies that want to grow. Previously, the chip factory's purchasing policy was aimed at large, professional partners. Now a grower with 10 hectares can also get a contract. Everything to have enough potatoes next season.
CAP plays no role
Like his Western European colleagues, the Polish potato grower is also noticing the negative consequences of a shrinking resource package and increased costs for those products and fertilizer. What plays little or no role is the new CAP, which affects land availability, especially in intensive Western European cultivation areas. Subsidies are available in Poland for field edges and buffer strips, but they hardly play a role. Grains remain the main crops, which means that construction plans are already quite extensive.
Extreme weather is also a major concern in Poland, in addition to the availability and costs of labor. This is reflected in the revenue figures. These fluctuate from an average of 35 tons to 21 tons per hectare. Growing without irrigation can no longer be called realistic. It quickly halves the yield, from 40 to 20 tons of Innovator per hectare. King Winter is currently only handing out pinpricks in the country. Sufficient snowfall is important to replenish moisture reserves. So far the winter has been dry, although a turnaround may occur in February.