The current potato market remains in good shape, although after the increase in the first weeks of 2023, the market appears to be stabilizing. The €30 level seems seen across the EU-4 countries and, as also indicated in other articles, a considerable barrier.
The price in Belgium and France is currently €30 per 100 kilos ex-farm, with peaks of €31 for Innovator. As is known, Belgian processors buy ex works, which means that as the distance to the final destination increases, the 'ex farm' price decreases to, for example, €27,50 for Fontane in the northern part of the Netherlands. The free price then amounts to €31 per 100 kilos.
A striking development in the market is that virtually no premium is paid for delivery later in the storage season. If €6 per 35 kilos is paid for 30 mm uphill Challenger in the north of the Netherlands for week 100 deep in the south of the Netherlands, this is not much more for Fontane delivery at the end of May. In short: as has been the case throughout the entire season, customers are keeping a very close eye on the ball and will see where it goes in the coming months. This is also clearly visible on the futures market for the April 2023 contract, which is quoted at 'only' €30, while it concerns a price for delivery/settlement week 17.
Which direction is the market choosing?
Will the market, which has felt more stable in recent days, make moves higher in the short term, or will there be a trend moving towards a lower price level, as was the case in February/March 2019 when the April 2019 futures contract peaked after in weeks 3 to 7 at €33 dropped to €27. The Belgapom quotation for Fontane and Challenger fell sharply during that period from €30 (week 13) to €25 (week 14). Obviously, a light never goes on when markets make unexpected movements, but there are no signals for a pullback; There is a strong demand for potatoes, especially from Belgium. Moreover, there will not immediately be a much further increase. There are still enough potatoes in stock for this, especially in Germany, according to the latest reports (February 3) from the AMI. The same reporting showed that the slightly larger stock in Germany (400.000 tons more at the beginning of January than around the same time last year) is more than compensated by the fact that there are fewer potatoes in stock in France (1 million tons less stock at the end of 2022 versus 2021). .
Finally, the good substantiation of the market is further strengthened by demand from the export segment. For example, for 40 mm upward Agria delivery in March from farmer in the middle of the Netherlands, up to €33 per 100 kilos of grower was paid.