Given the current mood in the potato market, which is calmer, it seems as if the tree needs to be shaken. Perhaps with the idea of activating growers to provide supply for later delivery in May, for example.
In recent weeks, many potatoes have been bought (also for later delivery) that will be loaded immediately or within the foreseeable future. The general sound that goes through the market is that processors have enough in position for the time being. The result can be seen immediately in the course of the April 2023 quotation, which dropped this week from €29,50 to €27,60 on Thursday, February 23, with a closing quotation on Friday of €28,40.
Quite a special situation, as the Cash Settlement (CS) came in at €29,90 this week at the highest point of the season so far. Looking at the course of the futures market this week, it is apparently expected that the potato market will drop sharply due to the intended drop in demand from the processors. As a result, the quotations will turn out lower, Belgapom and the French RNM to, for example, €27,50 (-€2,50), and ultimately the CS as well.
Soup not as lukewarm as the signals
There is no other explanation for the even lackluster mood on the potato futures market. Ultimately, given the experiences in other seasons, the soup will not be served so hot and in mid-April (week 17) the market may reach a higher level than the current closing position at the end of week 8 (€ 28,40). However, a settlement (far) above the €30 level will be quite a challenge, at least that is what the market is telling us today. The fact that the soup is not as lukewarm as the signals lead us to believe can be deduced from the picture of trade in Belgium. The trade there buys for prices that vary from €30 per 100 kg for Fontane delivery in the coming weeks to, for example, €32,50 for week 20.
All this makes the current situation in the market even more unusual if you compare the significantly increased contract prices for the coming season. If, with all known information from the 2022 harvest year (consider, for example, considerably fewer potatoes in France), the current market is struggling to hold up and €30 per 100 kg really seems to be an upper end, what kind of market picture do we have if there is no story (read: market impulses) to report?