In 2022, the Belgian potato industry processed almost a fifth more potatoes than in the old record year 2019. The processed volume of potatoes has doubled in twelve years. It is striking that potato production is stagnating. Maintaining this murder rate is becoming an increasing challenge.
6,2 million tons of potatoes. So many 'fries' disappeared through the gates of the Belgian processors only to emerge on the other side as croquettes, waffles, wedges or chips, flakes and granules. But mainly as chips, frozen chips intended for the world market. In 2022, production was 2,5 million tons. Twenty years ago, the Netherlands processed more than 3 million tons of potatoes. This made it the absolute top in Europe. In Belgium the volume was only half. It took eight years to double that. The next doubling took twelve years.
Rearguard action
It remains the miracle of the potato sector. By comparison: In the Netherlands, processing capacity increased by almost a million tons in a period of twenty years. Corona threw a spanner in the works, but the processors have now returned to their old levels. In Germany the growth curve is similar. There it went from 2,5 to about 3,5 to 3,75 million tons. Meanwhile, France, Poland and the United Kingdom are fighting a rearguard action.
How do the Belgians pull off that trick? The main reason: the price. In 2022, the average price of a ton of frozen Belgian fries was €929. For the Netherlands this was €1.032 and in Germany €1.054. A price difference of €103 is not earth-shattering. Chip prices shot up last year and the differences have become smaller. Dutch fries even became cheaper than Belgian ones. In 2021, the price difference between the two countries was still €158 per tonne.
To achieve such processing figures you need potatoes. Lots of potatoes. Since 2010, an average of 4 million tons of ware potatoes have been harvested annually in Belgium. That level was not achieved in six of the twelve years. The level was significantly exceeded twice (2014 and 2017). The average is therefore the flattened reality. The area has increased considerably, especially since 2015, but this does not result in more potatoes. That's where the shoe pinches a lot.
Import potatoes
The processors can mainly deliver their feat by importing large volumes of potatoes. Belgapom does not disclose figures. We do have the Dutch export figures. This season, until March, a total of 569.000 tons of potatoes were exported. Most of this goes to Belgium. With Northern France as a backyard, Belgian companies have so far had access to sufficient potatoes, although the production engine there is also faltering due to extremes.
This season, processors have done their best to import more potatoes. Figures from the organizations PCA, Carah and Fiwap show that the free stock is 17% lower than average. Not surprising, considering that almost only tons of contracts are signed. Lower yields therefore by definition mean less free stock. Compared to the five-year average, there are 5% more contracted tons in stock. In absolute tonnes, the volume of 1,44 million tonnes is even a quarter more than the five-year average.
More early potatoes
In retrospect, the fact that the factories used their potatoes sparingly was a good move. This month hardly any potatoes went into the ground due to excessive rainfall. According to a modest survey by PCA, among 125 Flemish growers, it appears that they are planting 5% more early potatoes this year. That matches the ambitions of the processors. The area of late varieties is actually decreasing by 5%, it appears. In Wallonia, according to initial reports, this shrinkage is more moderate and cultivation remains stable.
It is extremely difficult to estimate how many potatoes are already in the ground. Planting has been done sparsely on the very light soil. After a few beautiful days in early March, only a few hundred hectares have been planted. Some of the plots were also damaged by the heavy rainfall that followed. The fact is that even among the early varieties, at most a quarter is in the ground, according to insiders. Things aren't much better in France. In the east of the country, the weather conditions are favorable to farmers, but further along the coast it is also soaking wet.
Processing shifts
Whether the industry can maintain their killing pace is questionable. The growing season plays an important role in this. Ultimately, this determines potato production. In that respect, Belgium has not seen a 'normal' season in the last five years. Extreme weather always throws a spanner in the works. The processors' growth ambitions remain unchanged. All signals are green on the world chip market. Especially because the United States is also unable to respond to the Europeans. In fact, their home market has become an important export market for Belgium. In order to have sufficient potatoes and fries, we mainly look at Northern France. New factories are appearing in the border regions and cultivation can also expand there.
The miracle of the European potato sector will soon not just be a Belgian celebration, but a Franco-Belgian effort. If you add the Dutch efforts of Aviko Potato (Poperinge) and Farm Frites (Lommel), you really get the international character of the sector.