It was already clear that the potato market is changing. Today (Wednesday 26 April) a new milestone has been reached. On the futures market, the June 2023 contract has touched the $40 level. A historic moment, it had never happened before in the era of cash settlement (CS) based settlement that the futures market is trading at $40.
The settlement next Friday (the last trading day is Thursday April 27) will also take place above the €35 level, which has never happened before. In the previous expensive year (2018/19 season), the last April contracts were settled at €27,90. The fact that the market is now taking these steps does not come as a complete surprise. In January there were already signals that the market could break the €40 barrier this season.
Man in need
Looking at the June quotation, the physical potato market in the EU-4 countries could increase even further, from today €35,50 (the expected CS of Thursday, April 27) to €40. That some potential must be possible can be learned from the current daily market. In both Belgium and the Netherlands, €40 per 40 kilos was paid for 100 mm upward Fontane for direct delivery of fries factory. The fact that the demand (read: need) for potatoes is high is also evident from the fact that, for example, direct delivery Agria is traded for €37,50 per 100 kilos. It was recently thought that this batch would be disposed of as flakes due to its quality.
Now it is certainly not the case that all factories chase potatoes. In some cases, potatoes from a certain processor are put through the knife by a competitor. It is mainly the Belgian processors who have actually been leading the way in terms of price formation throughout the season. Now that is up to even €40.
Extremely exciting
The question that immediately arises is: is that the top end or can the market for fries potatoes go to, for example, €45? Why not, might be the answer. The demand is enormous versus the supply, the storage season will continue for at least another two months and spring is late. A cooling element could be that factories scale down the processing pace somewhat. These signals already exist in the market. What is true of this will become clear in the near future. The fact is that the final agreement of the 2022 harvest year will be unprecedentedly exciting.