To talk about panic right now would be going a bit too far - and besides, panic doesn't solve anything of course - but that the tension among the French fries processors is rising is one thing that is certain. Just think: a season in which the total EU-4 potato harvest of 2022 will be very disappointing (especially in the growing areas of France and Belgium) while the French fries sales worldwide are booming. Then there is the late spring, of which it can already be said that not all potatoes in the EU-4 will have been planted by mid-May.
All these factors have led to a price explosion from an average of just €30 per 100 kilos to €40 less than six weeks later and it is only the first week of May. The question you can ask yourself as a processor is: how do we reach the finish line? Would it be useful, for example, to pay €45 for Fontane soon or even more? Naturally, there will always be growers who say: 'It was nice', that has already happened on the way to the higher level. Especially at the almost magical level of €40, growers who still had something to trade did a lot of volume. That kind of market price for varieties like Fontane and Challenger is unprecedented to date! Yet, just like in the onion market, there are growers (will have to wait a little longer despite an offer of almost €85 per 100 kilos) who are waiting for (even) more.
Exceptional situation
Just like the previous price increases, the initiative will mainly have to come from Belgium. Belgapom recorded unchanged (€5) on Friday, May 40, with, mind you, the vote fixed. A fixed vote often indicates an ultimately higher ranking the following week, or certainly the week after that. What the next step will be, €2,50 or more, remains to be seen. In any case, insiders are already reporting market prices higher than €40 in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany. For example, the German REKA quoted up to €5 for fries-suitable Innovator on Friday, May 41,50. Other sources already report higher market prices, especially for Agria, for which up to €45 has been paid for export.
The current market situation can be classified as 'unheard of in the last twenty years' and even makes the contract price level for the 2023 harvest almost pale. Apparently we are moving to a new kind of potato market where the €30 level is the old €20 from, say, five years ago (a nice market price at the time).