The puzzle pieces don't fit together. In fact, slowly but surely, processors are discovering that pieces are missing from the potato puzzle. At the end of week 19, we are living with a persistently changeable weather picture and an average EU-4 market price for French fries potatoes of over €40 per 100 kilos. We still have a long time to go until mid-July (end of storage period and transition to new harvest). How to solve that?
By bidding more on the available potatoes that are still for sale. The free share of the total harvest has decreased further in recent years. It is once again clear that capturing as many potatoes as possible actually increases volatility. Today there is a shortage and we are looking for the last potatoes and a market price of around €45. Next year or the year after that there will be enough potatoes and there are no buyers. The volatility of cultivation, but nowadays also the sales of the end product, will only increase; something that will cause difficult moments for the spreadsheet 'artists'.
Exciting finale
For example, various processors are currently offering €42,50 for regular Agria for delivery this month; the same lots could yield €45 to €48 per 100 kilos for export. For Agria in boxes and mechanical cooling, bids even exceed the €50 level, with the buyer determining the delivery time. Depending on the region, varieties such as Fontane and Markies currently pay between €42 per 100 kilos and €45 (Flanders).
With at least eight weeks to go before the transition to the 2023 harvest, it is simply inevitable that capacity will have to be reduced. After all, the first early potatoes are also delayed, and the 'little' potatoes that are grown as a reserve in Southern Europe can never fill the gap. A quite bizarre denouement of the 2022 harvest year, which could have a direct (positive) impact on the 2023/24 season with market prices (think €30) that are normally seen in top price years.