Exceptional spring starts a new deed

The parallel with the spring of 1983 has already been drawn many times. Forty years ago, 120 millimeters of rainfall fell in May, causing major delays in spring work. Fortunately, this is less this year, although the regional differences are large. For example, 25 millimeters fell along the Zeeland and Frisian coast, while in places in Flevoland, Groningen and Brabant it was almost 100 millimeters.

Big differences
This means that land operations vary enormously from region to region. This difference is perhaps best visible in Flevoland point also published the figures of Aviko Potato. Eastern Flevoland and the Noordoostpolder have planted 90% to 95%, while in the southern polder half still needs to be planted. However, there are also many lower-lying plots on the sandy soil in the south and southeast that remained undeveloped for a long time.

With stable, dry weather this week, almost all potatoes can be planted this month. It remains to be seen whether this will also work elsewhere in Europe. Especially in Belgium, a fair share of potatoes still have to be planted. Aviko figures even indicate that half of all French fries potatoes are grown by its growers. In the Netherlands, France and Germany, about 20% still needs to be planted.

After flooding comes drought?
The Flemish PCA and its Walloon counterpart Fiwap already expressed their concerns earlier this month about the lack of growing days for chip potatoes. With sufficient moisture and above-average temperatures, the crops can develop quickly, but the potatoes will no longer catch up with almost a month's lag. The first concerns are already being raised about persistently dry weather. And that's where the comparison with '83 comes up again, when it was also very warm and dry in June, July and August.

It is (far) ahead of schedule how the summer of 2023 will go, but meteorologists agree that it will remain mainly dry and above average warm for the next fourteen days. A permanent high-pressure area flowing into the European continent ensures this. At the same time, a low-pressure area is trapped in Southern Europe, resulting in heavy precipitation, including in Italy. Current weather models show that the high-pressure area will weaken in the second half of June, causing low pressure to cause more volatility in northwestern Europe. Until then it will remain very sunny and the temperature can rise considerably.

Market is steaming along
A combination of the late planting time, the weather forecasts and an enormous demand for increasingly scarce potatoes is pushing the market higher and higher. Monday afternoon, May 22, the potato futures market for the first time in history a price of €50,00 per 100 kilos for the June contract. That price has been achieved for export potatoes on the physical market for some time. On Monday, May 22, PotatoNL even recorded up to €53 for category 2 and up to €50 for category 1.

It is difficult to say where the ceiling of the market lies when an unprecedented movement takes place. What we know for sure is that the Dutch potato processors are certainly not slowing down, as shown processing figures about April. Nearly 122.000 tons of this volume were imported from Belgium and Germany. The Belgians are also not sitting still. 62.000 tons of Dutch potatoes crossed the border in April, bringing the season count to 383.300 tons. That is 56% more than in the same period last year. Exports to France grew by 48% this season. Germany accounted for 7.770 tons. Fewer potatoes went there this season.

Take what you can
The above-average harvest above the major rivers - and extensive coverage of various Dutch processors - has saved the European chip industry. As we get further into the storage season, that lifeline becomes increasingly thin. Especially in a processing season of thirteen months. The final act of the 2022/23 season will therefore be unique if the factories want to maintain their breakneck pace and take maximum advantage of a demand market for fries. In addition to a faltering spring, we also know that the area in the EU-4 will probably hardly increase this year. This also contributes to the fact that buyers prefer to grab every potato that appears in front of them.