Heat and drought determine European potatoes

The precipitation deficit is increasing rapidly, not only in the Netherlands, but also in surrounding countries. We are now experiencing a record-long dry period. The first withdrawal ban of this season is already a fact in West Brabant, on the sandy soil, and other water boards are also doing everything they can to buffer fresh water. Get ready for 'very expensive beepers', says De Telegraaf. Is that an exaggeration or are the problems really that big?

2023 is already a series of special events. One of the most striking facts is that the potato situation in the EU-4, the United Kingdom and Poland is largely the same: a late spring resulting in late planting dates and then heat, drought and a lot of evaporation. Couple that with last year's tight harvest and you have one perfect storm which pushes potato prices to almost €70 per 100 kilos.

Netherlands: development of late crops slow
Early potatoes went into the ground from the end of February. Planting was possible under good conditions at the beginning of March. The soil had a better structure then than it did six weeks later. Heavy rainfall (79 millimeters on average in April, the most in 25 years) caused flooding. May was drier than usual with an average of 40 millimeters, but most of that precipitation fell at the beginning of the month. Rainfall exceeded 100 millimeters, especially in the coastal areas. In many plots you can now see places where the potters have rotted away. This also applies to sandy soil areas such as East Brabant.

Until the beginning of June, potatoes were planted on clay soil in Flevoland and the Northern Netherlands. These plots are just emerging in mid-June. The crops that have been in the ground for almost a month also take a long time to arrive. Chunky weather and low nighttime temperatures have not helped crop growth. Even now, the values ​​are still decreasing at night. An image that is also visible elsewhere in Europe. In Estonia it was still a few degrees below freezing at the beginning of this week and there was also frost on the ground in the Ardennes. Despite the fact that the wind direction is turning to the west, we continue to experience relatively dry, summery weather that hardly brings rain. Irrigation artificially helps crops grow, but the evaporation is much greater than can be compensated.

Belgium: Wallonia planted extremely late
The situation with our southern neighbors is even more dire than in the Netherlands when it comes to potatoes. Here too, there are differences between early plots on sandy soil and late-planted varieties. Planting took place until mid-June, especially in Wallonia, under very dry conditions. The question is how these crops develop. Many plots have 'a story' due to structural and water damage and do not become top properties. The province of Flemish Brabant has imposed an abstraction ban on a number of watercourses.

If significant rain falls at the end of June or beginning of July - and it remains cool - then the potatoes can probably make up some ground, but the harvesting time will be pushed back. This does not have to be a problem, provided there is a stable dry period late in the harvest season. That is an additional risk factor.

France: contrast between west and east
While arable farmers in the east of France (the Champagne region) were generally able to plant early and smoothly in April, the picture towards the coast is very different. The situation there is very similar to that in Belgium. It remained wet for a long time, especially in Nord-pas-de-Calais and Normandy, and it is currently extremely dry. This complicates the turnout, which is slow. Irrigation is hardly possible in many places due to a lack of water. Further south, the harvest of early potatoes is getting off to a good start. Due to the fixed market with high prices, the plots are cleared earlier than planned.

Germany: travel through the seasons
Anyone traveling from north to south in Germany is also traveling through the seasons. While one plot was still being planted at the beginning of June, the first harvesting machines were already running in the Palatinate to harvest early potatoes. Growers in that area were able to plant on time and, despite the cool weather this spring, crops are off to a good start. It is now dry there too and irrigation is needed. The facilities for this are available. Prices at the start of the season are around €90 or slightly higher.

Bavaria is an important area for chip potatoes. Planting was also late there due to persistent rainfall. The situation in Northern Germany is variable. Planting was done in a timely manner on the higher ground, but this was not successful everywhere. But to the north and east it was usually possible to plant on time and the crops had a head start.

Poland: South finally gets rain
In the north of Poland it has been dry all spring and that image remains intact at the beginning of summer. The south and southwest have received significant rain this week, which was also much needed. Polish growers were able to plant their potatoes easily at the beginning of May. A little later than normal. During the day the temperatures are at summer values, but at night it cools down considerably to below 10 degrees in the southwest. That slows down crop development.

United Kingdom: trying to avoid heat stress
This spring's rain came as a boon for growers to replenish their irrigation basins. At the same time, it caused a delay in the planting work, even though planting could have started at the beginning of February. The first crops are already being harvested. The British market picked up much earlier than on the European continent, due to great scarcity on the island. Especially to varieties such as Agria and Marquis - which are loved by the fish and chipsstores - is in high demand.

The thermometer in England has also risen to thirty degrees, which means that the irrigation systems are running at full capacity. A thunderstorm has fallen locally, bringing some relief. Insiders report that the crops are struggling due to poor soil structure and the current heat.

Perfect storm in the potato sector
Everything that could go wrong went wrong in cultivation for the potato sector this year. The problems are particularly serious in the coastal areas and the crop stages are widely separated. The question is not whether, but how much, the yield will be lower, according to insiders. A lot depends on the weather – and especially the precipitation – in July and August. Can the crops still catch up, as we have often seen in the recent past, or will we remain glued to the image of 1983? It is dangerous to make statements there now. We do know that the starting situation is far from ideal and that processors do not have to rely on a significant area expansion.