Is 60 euros the price of (new) potatoes?

These days the chip industry mainly runs on contract potatoes and previously purchased potatoes. Real free volumes are almost impossible to find in the market anymore. The fact that no more transactions are actually reported to the TransactionApp does indicate that there is little left to trade. On the PAT Index small volumes are reported from Agria (100 tons), Innovator (100 tons) and Victoria (150 tons), all at prices of €55 per 100 kilos. The Belgian market is singing a note higher, now that the Belgapom quotation for Fontane, Challenger and Marquis rose to an all-time high of €60 on Friday. Insiders believe that this is not the end of the increase, as Belgian processors have less coverage than their colleagues in the Netherlands and the early harvest is not yet available.

Processors still have a few weeks to overcome before they can start processing new potatoes. Most processors aim for a transition around week 30 (preferably a little earlier), but this also depends on the kilos that will be added in the coming weeks. The rain this week, especially in France, Belgium, the south and east of the Netherlands and large parts of Germany, has at least given the early varieties growth potential again. 

The most frequently asked question among (early) potato growers is: what is the current price of delivery from the field for Première, Amora and other early varieties? Most contracts concluded by early potato growers are around €20 to €23 per 100 kg, delivery week 29/30/31. Given the price trend of the old harvest, which is reaching record prices, the cold spring and the lagging crop development, you can assume that the price of free early potatoes must be substantially above the contract prices.

However, there is not much supply at the moment, because many growers do not know whether they have anything to sell at all. Many have concluded tons of contracts and will have difficulty meeting that obligation in persistent dry weather. Genuine free growers indicate that they are not suppliers of potatoes under €30 for delivery week 30. It is unclear what the price level will be at which trade is possible.

The non-functioning of the futures market also seems to be affecting the potato market at the moment, because it makes it difficult to estimate the sentiment in the market. What exactly can the price of storage potatoes for delivery week 17 in 2024 be set at? It seems obvious that this is also above €30. This week, a Dutch processor came out with a tender of €30 for delivery week 17. This is a first toe in the water to see whether supply and demand meet at a certain price level. At the time of writing this article it was not (yet) known whether much volume had been recorded at this price level. A relatively large number of potatoes have already been contracted. A low yield expectation may limit the sales appetite among growers.