Rain gives a little relief to the potato market

There is quite a lot going on in the various cultivation areas and an above-average hectare yield no longer seems feasible this season, especially due to the reported problems with the seed potatoes (poor emergence but also rot in early planted plots). So there was a wet and cold spring with planting completed late, followed by a long dry period. The very difficult growing conditions to date will certainly have consequences for the total potato harvest in the EU-4 countries.

Insiders report that at least 40% of the plots in the EU-4 countries did not have their backs closed for the longest day. Something that is often the first indication of a reduced yield. Northern France, Belgium (where there were problems last season) and the south-west of the Netherlands and important growing areas in Germany seem to have received the most rainfall, and have therefore been able to partially compensate for the water shortage. Central and Northern Netherlands are still experiencing a rainfall shortage, which means that the reels are running at full speed.

Buyers apply
The precipitation resulted in slightly more supply on the futures market for the April 2024 contract (as far as it can still be traded) at around €30 per 100 kilos. Hedgers seem to have some interest in that kind of money. Yet most growers are not in a hurry to sell yet. This is also because a lot of volume has already been committed to contract and it must first become clear in the coming weeks what additional items can be sold. The reluctance when it comes to selling the new harvest is also due to the current and extremely high price level (up to €60 per 100 kilos) of the old harvest. That is double the current futures market rate and almost triple the average contract price!

Last week (week 24), with rain in the forecast, a processor (cleverly) issued a tender for €30 for delivery week 17. Reportedly, there was little interest in this. Looking at the 2022/23 season and the total volume of consumption potatoes harvested in the EU-4 countries (21,6 million tons) and the market price at which the entire season was traded - with more than significant price increases from last March - then harvest can 2023 will be an interesting season again with only a limited area expansion in the EU-4 countries and the state of the crops at the end of June. A market well above the contract price level should be quite feasible; where it is of course not immediately realistic to look at the price movements in recent months with regard to the 2022 harvest.