The connection between old and new crops of potatoes remains exciting. The early varieties have a growth delay due to the cold spring, followed by a wet period. This was immediately followed by a very dry period, which makes it difficult to look ahead when the first new potatoes will be available.
It seems like a perfect storm for the chip processors. Everything comes together. A shortage of old potatoes results in a record price of €60 per 100 kilos for the few free lots. The growth of early potatoes has slowed down, while the demand for fries worldwide is unprecedented and fries prices (pre-fried) therefore remain record high. However, some processors shut down a number of production lines for a period of up to four weeks. This is not unusual at this time of year, but the lack of raw materials is undoubtedly also to blame.
A single factory is now busy with the supply from Bordeaux, where 'some' cultivation has also been set up. Here, Innovator is mainly grown under contract to meet the fast food demand for the desired fries. Processors want, or rather need to, switch to early potatoes as quickly as possible, if only because they have simply run out of old potatoes. Growers are not yet motivated to start harvesting. The kilos are not yet available and due to the large number of contracts they do not have any free potatoes to sell.
Waiting for kilos
Growers want to wait before harvesting in order to allow the kilos to grow and create some free potatoes that they can then sell at a (possible) top price. However, the desire to make some offers may change somewhat with a more changeable weather type that is expected (wind from the southwest corner). A tour among growers of the early potato growers shows that expectations about the price for delivery from the field from week 29/30 differ widely. The most conservative estimate is around €35 rising to €55 (based on the price of the old potatoes). The argument is that with 30 tons contracted, only a maximum of 5 to 10 tons can be sold freely. The high fees would not be enough for the desired final balance.
The first transaction has now been reported (July 3, 2023) on the DCA Transaction App for early potato delivery week 30. This reports €49 for 350 tons of Inova 35mm upwards, delivery from the south. By the way, Inova is a real (waxy) table potato variety, but is actually processed into fries by the purchasing party. Talk about dire need.