If someone would have said five months ago that the potato market would go to €45 and would rise to €60 (current Belgapom quotation of July 7 for 35 mm on Fontane) then the person in question would most likely be put in a dark room with a special jacket to come to your senses.
Then in an article earlier this year Boerenbusiness it was indicated that the potato market could rise to €40 without a fight (the average market price at that time was less than €30 per 100 kilos), the management was somewhat sympathetic, let alone if there were even higher market prices in that article pronounced.
The fact is, however, that the 'loud' music was made from Belgium last season. The 2022 potato harvest in Belgium and France was considerably lower than the multi-year average, while Belgian processors actually needed more raw materials than in previous years. Here and there, sales of end products were stolen from competing factories outside the Belgian borders. And with the significantly increased chip prices, people couldn't, and didn't have to, say no; not even with a purchase price that rose to historical price levels!
City and country are coming to an end
Currently, the 2022/23 season seems to be on its last legs. The potatoes are simply gone, so creative work has to be done to keep the business running before the start of the new season (2023/24). Potatoes are taken from the south-east of France (planned cultivation) and even from Israel for processing.
So on to a new season, where today, with the still absence of a futures market quotation for April 2024, hardly anyone has a clue as to what the market price of chip potatoes is today for delivery in August, let alone for delivery at the end of this year or April 2024. If the futures market quotation is launched via the replacement of Saxo Bank, the question is which quotation is realistic. Should that be above the €30 level or far above, or towards the contract price level for week 17 2024 (€25). The area of consumption potatoes in the EU4 countries is clearly larger than last season (estimates are at least 3%). Now let's see what the average potato harvest per hectare will do. A market price trend that occurred last season does not seem realistic, but that is a prediction that anyone can make.