Sufficient seed potatoes in 2024 seems an illusion

The only thing that is high this growing season is that there are numerous reasons why the average potato harvest is not that good. The number per potato plant leaves much to be desired, especially with certain varieties. But more about that later.

Even before the difficulties started this growing season, it became clear that the seed potato area in the Netherlands would shrink this year. That eventually happened 6% according to NAK figures. The share of chip varieties even shrank much further, such as Innovator by 11%. The seed potato area also fell sharply in other European countries, including Germany, France and Belgium. It is the returns that will have to do it from now on and they do not seem positive so far.

Irregular growth
The picture in the field is very variable throughout the Netherlands. In the north - where irrigation is not even allowed due to the risk of brown rot - many plots are very poor to average. But the plots are also disappointing in the center of the Netherlands and the south. There is a clear difference per area, per variety and also within a plot. The late planting of potatoes has caused the seed potatoes to sprout several times, causing the vitality of the mother tuber to take a serious hit. The seed potatoes could also not always be stored under good and correct conditions when planting was postponed. This caused many emergence problems and irregular growth this spring. The poor weather that followed added even more to that. Potatoes were dry, germinated slowly and some are still petrified in the back. The differences in soil type within a plot also caused irregular growth under these conditions. This together makes it difficult to find the right moment for foliage killing. Where in the field are you going to test harvest? When do you kill them?

At a minimum, remove seed from inspection
In the same field, the news spread like wildfire that seed potatoes were withdrawn from the NAK inspection and converted for consumption. After the late, poor start, growers saw more bread in a plot with ware potatoes. Inquiries from various parties, including the Dutch General Inspection Service for Seed and Seed Potatoes (NAK), indicate that plots have indeed been withdrawn, but this percentage is only very limited and minimal. In addition, it is unclear how many of the withdrawn plots were actually removed from the inspection for the above reason. It is also not possible to simply remove varieties from inspection if you are with a trading company.

Tubers as big as peas
When it comes to tuber formation and growth, the differences vary considerably. In general, the early planted plots (planted before the rain, and there are not many) are on average doing somewhat better, but on the later plots where tuber formation has only just begun, it is not as bad as first thought. It is clear that there are plenty of plots where the number of tubers of a plant can be counted on one hand. Likewise, there are plants with tubers as large as peas. Ultimately, of course, it is not about the most kilos, but the quantity of tubers in the seed potato sizes. Where tuber formation has only just begun, it remains to be seen how this will develop. But with sufficient moisture - as has occurred in some regions in recent weeks - this does not have to be negative at all.  

Varieties known for their high fruit set also perform less than in other years. Early varieties do less well on average compared to middle and later varieties. The setting of chip varieties is also less than in other years, although some varieties in the chip segment first develop a lot of foliage before tuber setting starts.

Growing seed potatoes
With the current consumer potato prices and the price expectations for next year, it is logical that seed potato growers will fertilize their potatoes and let them grow more than in other years. Whether or not forced in plots that differ greatly in growth stages and where many plants are missing due to emergence problems. That is likely to happen, the expectation is, because in terms of balance it could become interesting. This will also influence the total seed potato yield next year.

Chip varieties sold out
It is difficult to come up with concrete figures and estimates of what the 2023 harvest will yield, but some growers indicate that they think they will miss 20% to 30% in terms of seed potatoes. The lower tuber formation is simply a fact. Add to this the shrinkage of the area and it seems an illusion to say that we have sufficient seed potatoes for the 2024 growing season. While the French fry industry's hunger for more and more raw materials still needs to be satisfied. Overseas exports also remain in demand, although this may suddenly be a lot less in the long term.

The 2022 seed potato yields were good and a total of more than 855.000 tons were exported according to the NAO. Domestic demand also grew. Despite the good yields, the chip varieties were completely sold out, various trading houses indicated. That will be no different next year with this growing season. But as mentioned earlier, it is still too early to make estimates about returns.