Despite the drought in the growing areas of the EU-4 countries, the potato market remains tense, especially with the weather forecast for the coming week ahead.
Sun is what we need, says a cultivation expert. The crops must be converted into kilos, as they are lagging behind compared to previous years due to a late and then dry pre-season (June). The number of tubers per plant is also mentioned when you take a tour of the fields.
So what the average harvest per hectare will be is still the big question, which means that the mood with which the 2022/23 season started will be carried over almost one to one to the current season. For example, Belgapom recorded €28 per 50 kilos for early potatoes on Friday, July 100, which is unchanged compared to last week. It is likely that the listing will take some steps back in the coming weeks as supply increases. We already see that happening with the other Belgian listing. PCA/Fiwap dropped from €60 - €65 last week to €50 - €60 this week. The German Reka quotation today also shows a cautious decline for early potatoes. This week Reka amounts to €53, compared to €56 a week earlier for early potatoes intended for the processing industry.
Growth becomes decisive
Where the market and therefore the quotations will stand within the next month will partly be determined by the status of the crops of the main harvest. If the current uneasiness of buyers (read: processors) decreases somewhat, and people have more and therefore a better overview of the development of crops in the EU-4 countries - and Poland should not be forgotten - then this will immediately return can be seen in the mood. By the way, another mood factor may emerge later in the season, and that is the harvest. Due to the late start of the crops this harvest year, the growing season will in many cases be stretched as long as possible in order to still harvest the intended kilos. Often also a must for the grower who was very enthusiastic during the contract round (read: who has committed a lot).
In short, as mentioned earlier, the potato market continues to sail very closely to the wind. It is no longer surprising to see a futures market level of almost €35 for the April 2024 contract. Last year at this time (week 30) the futures market was more than €10 lower! Apparently we have ended up in a different world in terms of the pricing of French fries potatoes, or at least we think so. Only time will tell in the coming months.