One thing is certain, in a large number of important growing areas in the EU-4 countries, the potatoes from the 2023 harvest have crawled through the eye of the needle in terms of growing conditions. This is certainly evident from the various test results, which, compared to previous years, are more than far behind.
A significantly delayed spring in combination with persistent drought (especially in June) would make the potato harvest in the EU-4 countries one of the worst in many years. And this with the end of the 2022 harvest year, with market prices rising to as much as €60 per 100 kilos for, for example, Fontane suitable for French fries. Had the summer weather continued in July, the 2023/24 season would have gone down as the year that factories had gone dry (read: did not have enough raw materials available).
Weather premium
With the renewed knowledge that a potato market above the €40 level does not have to be a problem (who could have imagined that at the beginning of this year!), the trend of the old season would have simply been continued. However, the weather pattern of the last few weeks, with the often considerable amount of rain, is causing the ball to slowly roll back in the other direction. However, there is still a period to go before the main harvest starts and a lot can still happen in the meantime. Think of prolonged dry and warm weather, what does that do to crops that start late? Or what about the harvest risk. In order to achieve the desired kilos, harvesting will probably be postponed as much as possible, with all the associated weather risks.
In short: the rain of the last few weeks (often in large quantities) was more than necessary to prevent worse when it came to the final hectare yield in a number of important growing areas in the EU-4 countries. With the moisture supply and improved weather (more hours of sunshine) in prospect, the test harvesting results will soon show a different picture. However, that does not mean that a completely different wind will blow in the potato market, there will remain too much uncertainty in the coming months. The only question is what market price goes with it? Looking at the futures trade for the April 2024 contract (week 17), that is $33. That is considerably lower than the current market price for early potatoes (Belgapom unchanged €4 on Friday, August 50, mood stable), but a lot higher than the average contact price. Right or left, these remain exciting times in the potato market.