The completion of the 2022 harvest year at very high market prices and the price-wise comparable start of the 2023/24 season is one for the books. The 'roller coaster cart' has now really passed its highest point and is speeding down. Just look at the latest listing.
The Belgapom quotation fell in two weeks from €50 per 100 kilos to €30 on Friday, August 18. In particular, the comment that the mood is trending weak is not a very positive sign for the coming weeks. A market pullback towards the contract price for the current period is a scenario that several insiders are taking into account. The fact is that price pressure increases as supply increases. Growers who think they can still do business at, for example, last week's PCA quotation (€30 to €35) are in for a rude awakening, which actually increases supply. In short, there are potato quotations that lag behind the facts in a rapidly declining market and unfortunately provide a distorted picture. Depicting a real market situation, especially if it develops negatively, is always difficult. Especially if many growers have yet to realize this.
Trial harvests
The question remains how the market price will develop after the last correction. The coming weeks are crucial when it comes to the development of the potato crops. A tour of the EU-4 fields shows that the messages from the field are diverse, from "excellent expected potato harvest" to "multi-year average will not be achieved by a long shot".
The available test harvesting results show that on average the potato crops are far, very far behind previous years. Until mid-July there was great concern about what would become of the main harvest due to a late spring followed by persistent drought, especially in June. The rain, often heavy in some areas, has reshuffled the cards. The result today is a dull mood in the current market, combined with less confidence in price developments for the storage season. The April 2024 futures market has fallen from €33 to €29,60 (closing position on Friday, August 18). The fact is that it is far from certain that an average potato harvest will be harvested in the EU-4 countries. Letting the crops continue to grow for as long as possible also increases the risk. Furthermore, processors from Europe are still doing good business in the global sales of end products, so just a small hiccup can give the market a different face. However, there will first be a period that tastes a bit more sour than the sweet of the previous months.