Not only is meteorological autumn almost here, it also feels that way with below average temperatures and regular rain showers. The whole of Northern and Central Europe is affected by this. The potatoes for the main harvest are now entering their final growth phase. Trial harvest figures show a remarkable comeback in yields, but that's half the story.
In brief:
Vegetative growth has long been behind the potato crops and the plots are in their generative phase. That means making kilos and we clearly see that trend in all the trial harvest figures. Because most potatoes for the main harvest were planted about a month later than usual, this also gives a distorted picture in the graphs. A weather type with moderate temperatures and regular precipitation ensured that the potatoes were fed and dried on time.
Quality
This has now turned into a nuisance in many places in Northern Europe. Within the sector it mainly concerns the very high ones Phytophthora pressure, and especially those in the tuber. The problems are particularly serious in the Flevopolder, both in eastern and southern Flevoland. In an extreme case, potatoes with a heavy infection are sprayed with glyphosate and not harvested. Contaminated batches with a low underwater weight cannot be processed. Water damage is less talked about, but it manifests itself in all growing areas. This month, 150 to 180 millimeters of water has already fallen in some places in the east and south. The nuisance is often local and plot-dependent. It is clear that plots that were tampered with this spring are again disappointing.
De Numbers that Aviko Potato publishes weekly show the strongest increase in yield. A historically low yield was still shown at the beginning of August, but the lower limit (that of 2022) has now almost been reached. At the end of last week, the processor sampled more than 40 gross tonnes in the size 40mm upwards. The underwater weight also increases steadily, to almost 360 grams, which confirms that the crops are ripening.
The picture that VTA paints in the first yield measurement is very different. This amounts to 29,5 tonnes/ha net with a 20% deduction for spray marks, derogation edges, etc. The five-year average is almost 41 tonnes/ha. Fontane and Markies in particular show a lower yield. The yield spread is enormous: from 7,6 to 53,3 tons/ha.
Growing days
Normally, growth and sampling continues for another five weeks, until early October (week 40). In its latest sampling for Fontane, PCA states that the crop still needed fifty to sixty growing days in mid-August to fully mature. That is twenty days more than average. Crops have also improved considerably in Flanders and Wallonia. On average, 750 kilos per hectare per day grew in the first half of August. That is 250 kilos more than average. The fact is that the days are getting shorter and therefore growth is also decreasing.
The key question is how much of their potential the crops can still utilize. This also includes the fact that growers have to take a gamble when they spray the crop to death. After all, the potatoes also have to be harvested. That doesn't have to be a problem at the end of October, but things can also turn out differently. Large companies in particular cannot afford that risk, which means that kilos are left behind.
What plays a role this season is that growers have sometimes contracted more tons per hectare than they normally do - prompted by the contract price increases at the beginning of this year - so that the focus will be more on obtaining the maximum yield.
Excellent yields
The 34 Fontane plots that PCA sampled around August 14 (two weeks ago) were at 30 gross tons per hectare, after only 89 growing days. Calculated with the average growth per day, Belgian potatoes are now around or above 40 tons/ha. Those are some of the figures for the potato trading company brewer to show. Their first sampling of Fontane comes in at a very decent 43,8 tonnes/ha, with the coarseness being noticeable. Something that is also visible in PCA and Aviko figures and is due to a lower tuber number. The measured yield is even the second highest in the past five years. Challenger is doing the worst of the previous four years with an average of 33,6 tonnes.
It is striking that no problems with phytophthora are reported. Bruwier indicates that no significant damage was found during sampling. PCA also makes no mention of the disease. Yet the disease pressure is also high in Belgium. French growers are also struggling with potato blight, but this is not causing any major problems. You have to be careful and maintain a strict spraying schedule. Trial harvest figures from France are missing. However, insiders report that the crops have also recovered considerably in recent weeks. The harvest starts earlier than in Belgium or the Netherlands, which probably means that some yield will be left behind.
Lame market
It is also visible that a late planting date has consequences for the (semi) early variety Sinora. At the beginning of last week, PCA sampled an average of 35 tons/ha on eight Flemish plots. Another 4 tonnes are expected to grow. However, the wear of the foliage is faster than average. Apparently the early varieties yield a lot of kilos, because processors are hardly on the market to buy more potatoes. The Belgapom quotation fell to a measly €17,50 per 100 kilos last Friday and PotatoNL also had no choice but to set the bottom at that level on Monday. PCA even drops to €15,00 this week for early potatoes, citing further falling prices in a weak market, where supply clearly exceeds demand. This means that the free market price in Belgium has fallen below the contract price level. Something that many insiders until recently considered almost impossible.
Adjust estimate?
Now that it appears that the potatoes are showing considerable additional growth, does that justify adjusting European yield expectations? In a analysis At the beginning of August we expected 21,4 million tons of potatoes in the EU-4, with an average yield of 41 tons/ha. While we are still in the exciting second half of the match, it is impossible to say what that figure will definitively be. The thirty-day weather forecast predicts nice late summer weather for Northwestern Europe, with crops likely to continue to grow. With 525.750 hectares of consumption potatoes, the total harvest can increase in a range of 22 to 22,6 million tons. Thanks to the significantly increased processing and good French fries sales, the market can handle this volume well.
A larger potato volume does not have to be an obstacle for the price development of the main harvest. The April contract on the futures market is still above the €25 level. The physical market is also still above that level for delivery week 17 and therefore at or above the contract price level. It is important that the current mood for early potatoes does not have a long aftermath and thus 'contaminate' the market. There are plenty of opportunities for the longer term. The output prices of fries are and remain historically high, which means there is sufficient margin for a healthy free market price for the grower.