Who would have thought a few weeks ago that the average state of potato crops in the EU-4 countries would still be so good in mid-September. In the first half of July we still seemed to be heading for a very mediocre potato harvest due to a late spring and a very dry first part of the growing season. Until recently, a harvest with a yield per hectare around the multi-year average seemed to be the maximum achievable in the EU-4 countries.
The growing season has moved forward in its entirety, with sufficient moisture in the last six weeks in combination with a good dose of sunshine having a very positive effect on the potato crops. The current warm weather is never favorable for the crops, but the days are getting shorter and there is a lot of dew at night. An extensive tour of the various growing areas shows us that an average potato harvest should certainly be achievable. Signals that an average potato harvest with a plus is in the pipeline are also being heard more often; time will tell.
Mood changes
Because the condition of the crops has improved drastically in recent weeks and the potential in many plots is still high in mid-September, there is a significant change in mood in the market. Within the foreseeable future, the mood has turned from 'steady/price-based' to little more than 'bland'. While in Belgium last week (week 35) up to €17,50 per 100 kilos was recorded for early potatoes (Belgapom and PCA/Fiwap), on Friday September 8 that is €15, where the mood (bland) certainly does not give the impression that there is a different market picture will emerge in the short term. The German REKA quotation for week 36 also shows a further price drop (€15 for early and Zorba a decrease of €2,50) and strikingly for the desirable Innovator also a decrease of €2,50, which means that the REKA quotation for this variety drops to €16,50. In the Netherlands, where it now appears that the average hectare yield will be proportionately the lowest (particularly on clay soils), if we look at the PAT overview (for example Zorba up to €20 and Sinora €17), the most is still paid.
Although the potato futures market is struggling to get going again after a period of stagnation, the downtrend is clearly visible. The April 2024 listing closed on Friday September 8 at just €25,00, which amounts to the average contract price for week 17 next year. If everything is placed safely behind the shelves, €25 per 100 kilos for delivery in April may in retrospect have been a good price. After all, experience shows that a potato market often has difficulty getting out of the valley during the season.