Anyone who would have said in mid-August that the April 2024 contract on the potato futures market would fall below the €20 level would have looked with pity. Just as a reminder: the closing price on Monday August 15 was €32,90. Yet the reality is that the futures market has fallen below €20.
On Wednesday, October 4, the futures market opened at €19,90 and closed at €19,80. Although still with little turnover (27x), but if this market price were too low, it would still generate some demand (read: resistance). A disappointing development and it is generally assumed that some recovery can take place later in the season.
That price recovery of the futures market is certainly not inconceivable, but the current level from which this should happen is almost €10 lower. Just think, if a cash settlement had to be put together today with the Belgian quotations in which PCA/Fiwap contributes only €9,00 and the PotatoNL of week 40 comes to €11,50, then the current cash settlement would be approximately €10,50. The bitter experience shows that if a potato market is located in a valley, the way to a higher level is difficult and difficult to find.
Wait before harvesting
The uncertain factor about which some vote is still possible in the short term is the harvest. But as the month of October progresses, the harvest risk will decrease. Yet insiders report that growers want to wait as long as possible before harvesting. That would especially be the case in Belgium. In some ways this is typical given the initiative in terms of price development in that country. Within the EU-4 countries, Belgium is the first country that currently has an average below the €10 level. Why, as a grower, take so much risk with late harvesting? Apparently every kilo per hectare has to be squeezed out, while the 60 net tons for Fontane and Challenger have apparently already been achieved in many cases, according to the test harvesting results published on October 2 by potato trading house Bruwier.