American potato growers are harvesting their largest potato harvest since 2018. Processors have aimed for more potatoes this season, which has been more than successful. It even has an impact on 2024, including the potato contracts. The impact of the larger volume is also becoming noticeable in the import and export market for fries.
The US last saw a potato harvest above 2018 million tons in 20. In the four years that followed, this failed again and again. Disappointing yields, a market in malaise due to the corona pandemic and a shrinking acreage have caused this. 2023 will be a different story. The yield is still not at 20 million tons, but it is close. Processors have watched with suspicion as their share of exports has been taken over by European factories. More and more fries have also been exported to the US itself. This year it is different. The first signals for this are now visible.
9,5% more potatoes
First about the 2023 harvest, which is now well underway. Official figures from the USDA Department of Agriculture will not be published until much later. We therefore have to make do with insider estimates. This amounts to a total potato volume of 19,8 million tons. That is an increase of 9,5% compared to last year.
The driving forces behind this increase are the potato states of Washington and Idaho. Not only were significantly more hectares planted there, the yields are also at a high level. A plus of more than 5% is estimated for Washington. More than a fifth more potatoes are being harvested in Idaho. The largest absolute decrease is seen in the state of Maine.
Above average yield
The potato harvest went smoothly in almost all growing areas this summer and autumn thanks to favorable weather conditions. The clearing work is expected to be completed this month. The estimated hectare yield averages 52 tons per hectare. That is 4 tons more than the twenty-year average.
Idaho potato growers are heading for the state's largest harvest ever. The area grew by no less than 14.000 hectares and the yields are higher. Together with an above-average hectare yield, this results in 6,7 million tons of potatoes, which is 1,25 million tons more than was harvested last year. Recent rains have somewhat delayed the harvest in the state, which has otherwise gone smoothly.
The potato harvest is also going fast in Washington, in the main growing area of the Columbia Basin. Strikingly enough, the USDA assumes a decrease in the area, while insiders expect a plus. The hectare yields are considerably above average, causing the estimated total yield to increase by 230.000 tons compared to 2022, to 4,5 million tons.
Contract volume will decrease in 2024
The efforts of potato processors to have more raw materials have been more than successful in these states. There are more than enough (french) potatoes available. In addition, arable farmers have planted more free potatoes instead of grains, alfalfa or corn, which were still preferred last season. There has been a delay in the field delivery of these free potatoes due to the large volume and a shortage of storage capacity. This also puts pressure on the price. Insiders report that one processor has already informed its growers that it will reduce the contracted potato volume by 2024% for 10.
Sufficient potatoes mean that American factories can also supply more fries. This is already cautiously visible in the export figures for August. The volume of fries exported was the second largest this year and almost equal to last year. The price was one fifth higher than in the same month last year, at €1.577 per tonne of frozen fries. That amount is still well above European fries, which fluctuate between €1.200 and €1.250 per tonne. Exports to Asia declined this summer, while exports to South America grew.
Imports are growing, but price is a major factor
Perhaps more important for the Dutch and Belgian factories is the situation in the US itself. In August, the import of fries increased slightly. In the 12 months up to and including that month, the imported volume was 9% higher, at 1,45 million tonnes of chips. Canada accounts for 85% of this volume, followed by Belgium (12%) and the Netherlands. Germany has a small but growing market share. Perhaps strikingly, the one ton of Canadian fries cost $1.355 US dollars and those from Germany were only $4 more expensive! In one year, European fries have become up to a third more expensive, which has resulted in a greater reliance on fries from Canada.