As the situation on the potato market is now developing, Belgium but also France are, as it were, putting a lid on the potato market. If all potatoes can be harvested properly, the average potato harvest in Belgium and France will exceed the multi-year average.
There seemed to be absolutely no question of an above-average harvest at the beginning of July after the mediocre start to the season. A strong sprint from Fontane in particular followed. The growing weather to this day has turned the more than positive mood with which the 2022/23 season ended into an almost more than negative mood. The average market price for both Fontane and Challenger is just €10 per 100 kilos in France (RNM) and Belgium (Belgapom, Fiwap/PCA).
For the time being, it is expected that little will change in the current market picture. The surplus that exists during this off-shore period must first be eliminated. Hopefully, the market in the EU-4 countries can subsequently recover in price terms. An expectation that is reflected in the quotation of the April 2024 futures contract, which, after the dip in week 40 to €19,60, recovered somewhat this week to €20,50. Still a major setback after the price fall from the €30 level in July. But it does show that there is still some confidence later in the storage season. Confidence that is perhaps well justified, since the total processing capacity in principle exceeds the EU-4 potato harvest.
The fact is, however, that the current oversupply, which is not unusual in the off-shore period, must first dry up in order for the market to truly recover. Market pressure is expected to continue into 2023, also due to signals about quality problems. The feeling regarding price development for the second part of the storage season is still moderately optimistic. An average potato market in mid-April 2024 towards contract prices is also not entirely in line with expectations among several insiders.