It was already known that potato growers in Canada were in for a good potato harvest this year, but it is expected to break a record this year. This is not only due to the increased acreage, but also the high yields. Processors can work to process all the potatoes and must rely on their newly acquired export expansions.
According to official figures from Statistics Canada, 160.632 hectares of potatoes were grown in the country this year. The largest increase is in the province of British Columbia, but in absolute figures Alberta is the largest grower. The area increased by 2.800 hectares, good for almost 10% by 2022, and a total of 32.375 hectares. The reason behind that is clear. Just like in the United States, potato processors have focused on increasing production so that more fries can ultimately be fried. A surplus of potatoes here will pose quite a challenge this year.
Record quantity
The opinions about the total harvest size fluctuated a bit during the summer, but it was soon clear that it would not disappoint. Now that a significant portion of the potatoes have been harvested, a better picture can be formed. Insiders assume more than 125 million cents; converted 5,67 million tons, which is 8% more than the average. This concerns consumption (table and chips) and seed potatoes. Last year the harvest amounted to 5,57 million tons. If this number is actually achieved, it will be the largest harvest ever. The average hectare yield is estimated at 36,52 tons. More than 500 kilos more than last year, which was also a record.
Growers' organization United Potato Growers of Canada (UPC) estimates the harvest in the country to be slightly larger, at 5,76 million tons. The area planted this spring is equal to the official figures, but the organization assumes that more than 3.000 hectares will not be cleared this fall. This has two causes. On the one hand, due to excessive precipitation on Price Edward Island, the largest growing area in Eastern Canada. Between June 1 and September 15, a good 500 millimeters of precipitation fell there. A questionable rainfall record. This has caused rotten tubers and high phytophthora pressure. The hectare yields are therefore slightly lower than average, although given the dark and wet weather this is not too bad. The total yield is estimated to be 3% lower.
Potatoes underworked
What also affects the number of hectares harvested is the fact that potatoes are under-cultivated in the provinces of Manitoba and Alberta. At least that's what insiders report, but confirmation is difficult to find. It would involve no less than 2.800 hectares. The reason for this must be sought in overcrowded storage facilities, a lack of demand and, by extension, low free market prices. UPC does not mention the under-processing of potato crops.
Selling extra potatoes to the US is not possible this year option because the country itself has an excellent harvest to feed their processing lines. This also has an impact on the sales of end products across the Canadian border. Thanks to two poor harvest years in the US, the Canadian industry was able to benefit from a clear demand market. This year the cards have been shuffled differently.
Canada vs. USA
On the eastern side of the country, cultivation areas are struggling with the consequences of water damage. Poorer storage life and lower yields are expected. Quality is also an issue. Surplus potatoes from the western states may therefore be needed in the east to keep the lines running optimally. Canadian chip exporters have acquired American customers such as Japan and Mexico in recent years. The question is whether these countries will fall back on US fries for the 2023-2024 season, or whether they will stick with Canadian fries.
If the first scenario applies, it can be quite a challenge to reduce the harvest size and sell it at profitable prices. Just like in the US, this will have irrevocable consequences for contract volumes and prices next year.