A statement that is known to almost everyone: 'the last mile is the hardest' is certainly true today, as has often been the case in previous potato seasons. Potato harvesting in the EU-4 countries has gone quite well in recent weeks. Now there appears to be a clear delay for the last 25% of the area yet to be harvested.
The rain is the spoilsport, with growers in Belgium in particular having to dig until well into November to get everything harvested. In Belgium, they started the potato harvest late compared to the surrounding countries. In France, for example, 41% of the area had already been cleared in week 60, in Belgium this was only 35%. However, a lot of work has been done in recent weeks, so that the cleared area amounts to 70% (source PCA/Fiwap). In the other EU-4 countries it is estimated that around 20% still needs to be cleared, with the focus in the Netherlands, for example, being in the south-west.
In any case, 'the last rather tough stretch' has ensured that the mood feels a bit friendlier than a few weeks ago. Firstly, the negative trend on the potato futures market has turned into a somewhat more positive trend. The April 2024 contract is trading at €22,50 against €19,60 two weeks ago. There is little recovery visible in the various potato prices. This week, for example, both PCA/Fiwap recorded €8 to €10 and Belgapom €10 unchanged. However, the German REKA listing for Innovator did rebound slightly by €1 to €14. That also appears to be the market price at which customers purchase for the month of November.
Ask for Innovator
In any case, it is expected that Innovator will be in high demand this season. The hectare yield of this variety is generally not that bad, which may cause some shortages in the chip processing programs. An interesting fact, since Innovator is planned for the coming months in the top fries segment, but the intended volume must then be there. If there is sufficient supply of Fontane, especially from Belgium with a far from good price development, what should be paid for Innovator? That could be a difficult story, with the possible consequence that the Innovator area will not increase in the coming seasons. Growers are already hinting at this trend.
The demand for distant destinations (read outside Europe) for dry skin-firm potatoes that are suitable for export is on the rise this week. The current weather conditions also play a role in this. A sharp price increase on PotatoNL - with a top quotation of €25 or perhaps more in the coming weeks (up to €16 was quoted on Monday, October 23) - could certainly be the case.