As an outsider, you sometimes get the idea that chip manufacturers can even fry potato products using hot air. The fact that a faltering flow of raw materials does have an impact on output (read: export) is reflected in this summer's figures. A shrinking supply causes prices to rise to unprecedented levels.
The most recent export figures for the EU-5 are those for the month of July. The smallest amount of potato products was exported in seventeen months, according to data from the harmonized trading system. A dramatic decline, you might think, but it is worth noting that the sector has managed to stack record after record. The last figure therefore stands out a bit sharply from the rest, but it is a clear signal.
Compared to July last year, only 3% less was exported, which puts the figure of more than 476.000 frozen fries in a slightly different light. That is 13.000 tons less than was exported in June by Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, France and Poland.
Largest decline in Belgium
The largest decline, both absolute and in percentages, is visible in Belgium. 9.700 fewer tonnes of fries were exported there. For number two (the Netherlands) this was 3.000 tons, a decrease of barely 2%. France is in between in terms of decline, while the volume exported by Germany and Poland remained stable in this summer month.
In Europe, the big five have achieved record sales of fries every month, thus disrupting the trend at the end of the 2022/23 season. That doesn't come as a huge surprise. We have known for two months that the Dutch processing processed a particularly small volume in July. A low export number does not just appear out of the blue. The reason for this is obvious: a shortage of potatoes. In Belgium the supply line was even further curtailed, which is also clearly visible now. This hitch has certainly had an impact on the industry.
Price continues to boom
At least as interesting is the price that bakers charge for a ton of fries. There was still a visible plus in July. The value was on average a third higher than last year and 2% (€23) above June. We can therefore also conclude that it has been a success to pass on the expensive free potatoes (up to €57,50 per 100 kilos in the PotatoNL) in the price of fries, although buyers are increasingly grumbling when they see these - almost literally - golden yellow received fries on the quay.
Many of the destinations for fries from the EU-5 are also European countries. Number one: the United Kingdom, followed by France and Spain. The volume to these countries remained stable or even increased. It's a different story for non-European destinations. Saudi Arabia – the largest buyer of European fries – dropped the volume by a third. The United States took a quarter less and Brazil almost a fifth.
Temporary dip
Provisional figures for August show that there was a temporary export dip in July. Figures across the EU show that 17.000 tonnes more were exported than in July. In the summer month, Saudi Arabia and the US purchased slightly more product. At the same time, prices have remained at a stable and very high level.
September is also expected to show a similar picture, given the poor availability of potatoes at the start of the new processing season. Only in the second half of the month did volume really get going, which immediately had a major impact on pricing. Whether we will also see this reflected in the sales prices of fries, that will be the key question in the coming period.