There is a good chance that Belgian potato growers will harvest a record amount of potatoes for consumption this year. This is still a long way off, because in Flanders almost 40% still needs to be cleared. In Wallonia, a quarter of the potatoes are still in the ground. The country's manufacturing industry is also preparing for a record season.
The Potato Cultivation Test Center (PCA) estimates the total harvest of consumption potatoes for the whole of Belgium this year at 4,64 million tons. That is half a million tons more than the five-year average and no less than 1,64 million tons more than was harvested last year. PCA does warn that it concerns gross kilos in size 35 mm upwards. The share of potato tare is significantly higher this year because there are problems with deformed tubers, growth cracks and holes. This does not yet include any water damage.
40% to be harvested
Inquiries among 130 Flemish potato growers reveal that PCA still has to harvest just under 40% of the potatoes in the Dutch-speaking part at the end of October. Only a third of those surveyed have already finished the harvest. The larger growers in particular still have to clear a considerable area. In Wallonia, the harvest started earlier and is now three-quarters completed. It has rained less in Belgium than in the Netherlands, but the monthly total now also exceeds 100 millimeters in the west of Flanders. It is drier in the southeast. A small amount of precipitation is also expected every day for the next seven days and thereafter, making it difficult for the harvesting work to proceed.
A late start still results in kilos
The fact that the 2023 growing season is performing so exceptionally well in Belgium is surprising when you think back to the start. Hardly any potatoes were planted in April. Much of the main harvest did not go into the ground until around mid-May. This has particularly affected the early varieties such as Amora and Sinora, which were clearly planted too late. Varieties such as Fontane and Challenger have been able to put on weight thanks to a beautiful late summer with sufficient precipitation. In that respect, the precipitation that fell at the end of June was just in time.
PCA, together with other institutes such as Inagro, Fiwap and Carah, monitored ninety potato plots throughout the country. Three hundred test harvests were carried out. It is striking that the average number of growing days is more than two weeks shorter than in the last five years. Despite this, Fontane achieves a net yield that is a quarter above average, at 42 tons per hectare, 50 mm upwards. At Innovator this is even 43% more and at Challenger 45%.
Hectare yields are declining
However, PCA does have some comments on these figures. 2023 is an outlier compared to the five- or ten-year average. The graph shows that revenues decrease on average year on year. Yields are therefore about 5 tons per hectare lower than was usual ten years ago. This is the result of periods of extreme weather such as dry and hot growing conditions or cool and wet. In other words: had the area in Belgium not been expanded significantly this year and the yield had not been better than expected, the potato sector would once again have been heading for a shortage.
Record processing
In 2022, the Belgian potato industry processed a record quantity of 6,2 million tons of potatoes. Christophe Vermeulen, CEO of Belgapom, is expecting a new record this year, which could reach 7 million tons. This figure means that processors still have to import 2,36 million tonnes. Mainly from France and the Netherlands. Last year that was 2,6 million tons. We now know from the Dutch processing figures and chip export figures that the factories showed a dip in July and August, but bounced back in the autumn. Given the large potato supply in the field season, it is quite possible that the record figure will still be reached. This enormous potato flow also has a downside for the grower. Factories sit back and are not on the market in Belgium to purchase free potatoes. The Belgapom also remained unchanged at €27 on Friday, October 10, while prices in Germany and the Netherlands have already taken a step forward. The French RNM quotation is also still stuck at the €10 level for the sixth week in a row.
Direction of processors
It will be interesting which move the processors will make on the chessboard for the 2023/24 season. Prompted by significantly higher contract prices and less interesting alternatives, the area increased by 4,6% this year according to the NEPG. With a multi-year average yield, this amounts to 3,8 million tons. A favorable summer produced no less than 850.000 tons more potatoes this year, but will we bet on that again next season? Bearing in mind that yields per hectare are steadily declining, there is a good chance that factories will not slow down when contracting, but will want to increase the area a little further up to 100.000 hectares. In a 'normal' year this produces around 4 million tons of potatoes, which offers plenty of opportunities for a healthy market. If the penny falls the other way, you will bring in 4,8 million tons of potatoes and the market will clearly move in a different direction. The extremes will only become greater and not only in terms of growing conditions.