It will be exciting for 4 million tons of potatoes

A perfect late summer with sufficient precipitation and sun has ensured top yields in many countries. We notice less of this in the Netherlands, but Belgium and France in particular are reporting high yield figures this year. At least that was the expectation when the harvest had to start at the beginning of September.

Up to 20% harvestable
It is impossible to say exactly how many potatoes are still in the ground in Northwestern Europe. Insiders mention percentages as high as 20%. The fact is that the situation differs per country. Germany is the most advanced in this respect. Aviko Potato estimates harvest progress at 95%. In France too, this would concern the last 10% that still needs to be cleared.

Belgium, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are all in the same boat with about 20% still to be harvested. With our southern neighbors there is a difference between Wallonia and Flanders. The Belgian (and also French) coastal region in particular is hit hard in terms of precipitation. While farmers in East Wallonia could still harvest at the beginning of November, Flemish potato growers cannot do anything at all. PCA believes that a third of this still needs to be harvested.

Almost record harvest
If you take that 20% as a guideline, you are talking about no less than 4,65 million tons of potatoes out of a total of 23,25 million tons in the EU-4. To this end, we have updated the harvest estimates based on the most recent information. These are the PCA figures from Belgium, the CBS figures in the Netherlands and the French government figures. These are all well above previous expectations. This means that the EU-4 is heading for the largest harvest since 2017 when 'only' 275.000 more tonnes were harvested. Six years ago this resulted in a market in deep decline. In 2023, that flag hangs very differently. The processing capacity and demand for fries have grown enormously. So it's not surprising that it is long-term perspective is simply good.

The biggest challenge now lies in the Dutch clay growing areas, Flanders and Northern France. A combination of soil and precipitation makes harvesting completely impossible. The precipitation sum in the first ten days of November has already produced more than 100 millimeters of rain locally, causing increasing damage in the country. Low spots or parts with less structure are flooded, resulting in rotting tubers. Growers have no choice but to watch passively and try to get rid of the daily rain.

Toil
You may also wonder how this will work out in sandy areas, where harvesting machines still harvest. By now, almost everyone has seen the photos and videos of harvesters driving through the water and where more soil than tubers ends up in the bunker. These types of batches must be processed straight away. Moreover, capacity is extremely low under these circumstances, and every freight has to be competed for.

The Dutch potato market has a special status, partly because yields here are less positive than elsewhere in Europe, but prices are also moving in the countries around us. This movement had already started in Germany, but now the leading Belgapom listing in Belgium is also following suit. Friday, November 10, €15 per 100 kilos will be used with a price-based vote. PCA already came up with prizes up to this level for Fontane and Challenger earlier this week. France follows reluctantly with €12 for Fontane. At the moment, processors are still faced with a compelling offer from parties that cannot be stored. That dampens the mood somewhat.

Weather change?
It has now become a fact that not all potatoes come out of the ground. It is also clear that it is not more than 4 million tons. Every day something is cleared (with some skill and effort). The extent of the final damage remains unknown. Growers fear that we will eventually experience a change in the weather with frost making its appearance. The current situation can be compared somewhat with the 2010 harvest year, although it is much wetter now. At that time it froze at the end of November and we had a cold winter.

Despite the fact that we will soon have a new moon - which generally means a different type of weather - the weather models expect that we will continue to have low air pressure this month. This results in above-average temperatures and more precipitation brought in from the southwest. If we experience a mild winter, harvesting can still take place next spring. Not the first time something like this has happened, but far from desirable.