The last (and still significant) part of the 4 EU-2023 potato harvest remains a torture process for the time being. Although growers take every opportunity to harvest, it is now gradually becoming clear that not all potatoes are harvested. The question is what remains of the forecasts from earlier this autumn.
Due to the enormous growth spurt of the potatoes, especially in the months of August and September, a top harvest is expected to be in store, especially in Belgium and France. For example, Agreste (the statistical office of the French Ministry of Agriculture) announced at the beginning of this month that the total French harvest of consumption potatoes would amount to 7,1 million tons. That is no less than 17% more than in the 2022 harvest year (6,6 million tons in 2021, 6,7 in 2020, 6,5 in 2019). Belgium was also heading for an above-average potato harvest. With that expectation, until recently PCA/Fiwap put €8 to €10 per 100 kilos on the plate for Fontane and Challenger! Now a few weeks later and with more than 10% still to be harvested, especially in Belgium, the mood has changed drastically. For example, today (Friday, November 24) Belgapom recorded €20 for Fontane and Challenger for the second week in a row.
Too short or too much
Until recently, it was expected that the consumption potato harvest for the EU-4 countries would amount to more than 23 million tons, more than 1,5 million tons more than in the 2022 harvest year and comparable to the pre-corona harvest year 2020. If the harvest problems now If 5% cannot be harvested, the total EU-4 volume of potatoes would amount to more than 22 million tons, which is well above the 2021 harvest year, but it was known where the market would end up (€50+). If even a few more potatoes in the EU-4 countries were to remain at 5%, the starting position would be different again. But at the moment it seems a bridge too far to calculate that. Perhaps King Winter will adjust the situation downwards again in the coming weeks.
Due to the situation in the various potato growing areas, the mood has changed drastically, as indicated earlier, from an average market price of French fries potatoes in mid-October around €12,00 per 100 kilos to currently approximately €20, or almost €10 higher. The futures market quotation of the April 2024 contract has now anticipated the positive expectations for the spring to approximately €32,50. The fact is of course that the supply, especially of potatoes that are not or hardly suitable for storage and potatoes that are 'difficult' to store, will continue to put pressure on the market for the time being. So in that sense, current expectations may also be a bit too high. In that case, the sweetness may have to wait a little longer in the coming period.