Looking at the weather forecasts for this week, the final chapter for the 2023 harvest may well have been written. Especially with the arrival of winter weather. Another mountain of (grubbing) work was done last week, but the situation is certainly exciting for more than a million tons of potatoes.
The NEPG organization published a press release on Friday, November 24, stating that they estimate that approximately 1,4 million tons of potatoes are still in the ground in the EU4. The largest part of this is in the ground in our country, followed by Belgium. An estimated 22,2 million tonnes have been cleared in north-west Europe. This means that the volume is already larger than last year, when 21,7 million tons were harvested.
Red
The key question is how much of this estimated volume is still worth harvesting and processing. Particularly in Belgium and Northern France, a considerable area has been written off after flooding. In the Netherlands, it is mainly low places and headlands where the tubers rot, in addition to places where rot already occurred this summer.
Last week, grubbing up took place again in four European countries. Quite a bit even – as far as possible – because of the upcoming winter weather. Anyone who compares the Aviko Potato graphs (which provide some guidance) will see small growth. In the Netherlands, 10% of the Aviko area still has to be harvested and in Belgium a little more. France has now started on the last 10%.
Everything on everything
The reason to do everything we can is the weather forecasts that predict a small change. Temperatures around zero at night and barely above during the day, with a chance of (wet) snow and especially more rain. Every drop that falls is one too many at this point and all that moisture is in the topsoil. That makes harvesting almost impossible. Harvesting can often take place on sandy soils, but driving is the problem. You can drive on the load-bearing clay soils, but you cannot harvest (sieving).
Despite the colder weather just before the start of winter, we will probably not get a lot of frost and a thick layer of snow, according to the most recent forecast. This applies to Northwestern Europe. A lot of snow is expected, especially in Central Europe and the Alps. The fact is that a strong current of cold air will continue to visit us in the coming period, making it relatively cold for this time of year. The same current also brings an above-average amount of precipitation in the form of rain.
Compelling offer
The lots harvested last week were harvested under far from ideal conditions. Especially when harvesting takes place at increasingly lower temperatures, the risk of blue crops increases. In extreme cases, the potatoes are processed immediately. Cells from which the product was harvested at the beginning of November also sometimes have to be cleared early, several insiders report. This does not always involve small tonnages! This means that factories are faced with a compelling supply for which a place must be found.
With that fact in mind, it is not surprising that European potato prices stabilized at the end of November. Belgapom recorded unchanged €20 for Fontane and Challenger on Friday, just like PCA earlier that week. Germany and France are also holding on to that price and PotatoNL will most likely do the same. Potato growers who do have free quality potatoes have their doors firmly closed. They have plenty of other activities and will see what the market will do next year. With a potato futures market fluctuating around €32,60, the prospects for spring 2024 are excellent.
These growers are probably also puzzling over their cultivation plan for next year and what role fries potatoes will play in it. Around this time, the first contract prices for country delivery are published in Belgium. Processors cannot afford a reduction in contract prices, given the sentiment in the potato country and the fierce competition among themselves. The biggest problem is the supply of starting material. The NEPG is also concerned now that almost 7% less seed potatoes have been planted this year, the yields are disappointing and the quality is not very good everywhere. The shoe pinches, especially with chip varieties. One of the largest seed potato cooperatives reportedly still has at least 300 hectares of starting material in the ground. Meanwhile, the demands stretched just to have as many potters as possible.
Frost is necessary
The weather models are completely inconsistent about the long-term weather type. Will we keep a cold air flow, or will a mild southwesterly prevail again? It is bad news for growers with potatoes in the ground, but a good period of frost is required to get the land back into shape for the new season. Even where the products have been removed, much has been destroyed. An Eleven Cities winter can make up for a lot in not being 2-0 behind next spring.