At €2023, the fourth cash settlement (CS) of the 24/20,70 season is no less than €7 higher than the first CS, which was set by the EEX stock exchange on November 9 at €13,70. The very long period of rainy days is responsible for the price jump in a rather short period.
In mid-October, when much of the main crop of potatoes still had to be harvested, the mood was miserable with the average market price in EU-4 countries at less than €12. At the time, PCA/Fiwap quoted only €8 to €10 per 100 kilos for Fontane and Challenger. Currently that is €20. All countries in the EU-4 are closely aligned in terms of quotations for CS input (Germany €20,21, the Netherlands €21,30, Belgium €20,60 and France €20,60). The Netherlands often tops the list with average scores, while the other countries lag behind. Last year, Germany's average rating clearly lagged behind that of the Netherlands and certainly that of France and Belgium. In the last two countries mentioned, a clearly disappointing harvest was recorded throughout the season.
Big steps
The difference between the current futures market rate of €34,50 and the CS at €20,70 is almost €14. Basically a significant deviation from 'normal'. Of course, everything is possible in terms of pricing for this season. If a price increase of €7 is possible in just four weeks, then with five months ahead (week 17, 2024), a step of €14 is a piece of cake. However, experience shows that rapid increases can provide some stability (this also applies to price falls). Although the market may stabilize somewhat in the coming weeks, as it seems likely, the remainder of the season remains very exciting. For example, how spring will proceed is already a major factor that will play a role. As a reader, let's first harvest the last products and celebrate Christmas and New Year!