The shortage of seed potatoes for 2024 will not only affect the processing industry, but also free trade and potato growers. Even when the last ATR seed potatoes are grown, a problem can arise this year. The shortage is particularly significant for the Innovator potato variety. Due to their permanent contracts – and therefore a dominant position – processors are in control. Does that make free cultivation impossible?
The area of seed potatoes fell by 6,5% last year. The surface of 38.776 hectares is the smallest in nine years. CBS has not yet presented revenue figures - they will follow at the end of January with the final estimate - but it is clear that they will be lower. Significantly lower even in individual varieties that suffered from poor fruit set and a lot of reduction or rejection.
Potato processors block free sales
It is precisely chip varieties such as Agria and Innovator where the problem is now. A grower who was always used to purchasing Innovator class E for his own propagation (ATR cultivation) now receives an email from supplier HZPC - the license holder of this variety - that there is no starting material available in that class. The grower must make do with class A or not propagate seed potatoes for a year.
Potato processors have multi-year contracts with trading houses for the supply of seed potatoes. They have first choice. If there is a shortage, trading houses are obliged to first complete their contracts with the factories and only then do the rest. According to Gerard Backx, director of HZPC, this is a well-known construction that the seed potato sector has been working with for some time. "In principle, every buyer can conclude a contract with us for (multi-year) supply," but he acknowledges that this is difficult for individual ATR growers.
By demanding their fixed volumes, the large European factories put a lot of pressure on the seed potato sector. This not only affects free growers, but also free potato traders. They do receive seed potatoes - sometimes through-via - but much less than usual or alternative varieties are offered. These companies do not have much choice, as they themselves indicate. It's something or nothing. For the Agria variety, it is known that trading companies have even purchased seed potatoes on the open market to meet their obligations to the processors.
Declassification
At interest group NAV, things are quiet with ATR growers who are left out in the cold. Yet chairman (and seed potato grower) Teun de Jong is not surprised to hear it. "In Innovator in particular, a lot has been downgraded during the season, which means that much less of the higher classes are available. The variety also suffered from poor setting. Due to the low number, the tubers have grown coarsely and the yields are lower than usual."
Backx would like to add something to this. He admits that there have been quality problems, but 'the biggest problem is the decline in acreage'. "Not only in the Netherlands, but mainly in France and Poland. Our growers there are both consumer and seed potato growers. Due to the high contract prices last year, they switched from Innovator seed potatoes to consumption. This has caused a European shortage of this variety. "
It is extremely unfortunate that Innovator in particular performed poorly in the Netherlands last year. The area of this variety decreased in one year from 2.259 to 1.999 hectares according to NAK figures. A shrinkage of 260 hectares, or 13%. Double the average decline among all races. Apart from a peak in 2022, the cultivation of this chip potato variety has been on a downward trend since 2019, after it rose sharply in the previous years from 1.818 hectares (in 2015) to almost 2.500 hectares (in 2019).
Favorite chip potato
Despite the preference for Innovator from the industry, Backx also realizes that the variety is not every seed potato grower's favorite. In recent years, consumption potato growers have also increasingly opted for a different variety because the returns have been disappointing. The potato does not do well in all soils and dry years are detrimental to the 'Inno'. Partly because of this shrinkage, market opportunities are emerging again. The potato – because of its elongated shape and light yellow flesh – is a favorite not only at McDonald's, but also at other fast food restaurants, large and small.
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The potato contract prices invariably pay a euro or two more for Innovator. The market price is usually slightly higher than for round chip varieties such as Fontane. Yet this is not really reflected in the PotatoNL quotation over the past five years. Innovator comes to €22,56 per 100 kilos and Fontane to €22,25. Agria is slightly above at €23. There is also a noticeable shortage in the seed potato supply for that variety, but because it is no longer a licensed variety, growers do not necessarily have to contact trading houses.
Less freedom
Potato growers with an area of ATR seed potatoes (potato cultivation scheme) or farm seed potatoes (in Belgium) in particular choose this cultivation method in order to be free and not tied to a chip factory, which only delivers seed potatoes if there is a contract in place. It is sad for them that this freedom is now being restricted because the major buyers are making their weight felt. However, consumption potato growers who do not have their own seed potatoes are also affected. It is also very difficult for the free trading companies to offer Innovator for next season, which means there is less to commit to. Other classes and alternative breeds should close the gap next season.
The area of ATR seed potatoes has grown steadily year on year, until 2019, before stabilizing and declining slightly. Last year, 1.412 hectares of ATR seed potatoes were declared to the NAK, which was 1.436 hectares the year before. The plant breeder's right for the Innovator variety expires in 2029. The question is whether demand will still be so great. Moreover, it takes years before you achieve a stable production of starting material. Insiders do not expect that the problems will suddenly be resolved next year. After all, the class A sold this year may only be increased once. The area of Innovator seed potatoes will probably decrease again next season, which means that the availability for this variety will remain a challenge in the medium term.
Dominance
Free potato trading companies express great concerns about the dominant position that large potato processors have in the supply and delivery of seed potatoes. They see their chances limited when popular potato varieties (under license) can no longer be easily obtained.