The year 2024 has barely begun and the first settlement futures contracts for April 2025 have been listed. The opening will go down as an absolute record; never before has trading started at such a high price level.
The current and ongoing season (2023 harvest year) opened in June 2021 at a price level of €21, almost €10 lower than the 2024 harvest year opened at. Just a season earlier (2022 harvest year), the first contracts were traded at €16. In this sense, the evolution of the potato market is more than reflected in the start of the futures market season.
Black box
However, this does not say much about the further development of the market price during the year. For example, the futures market was still trading at €41 in week 20 this season. More than enough potatoes would be harvested, especially in Belgium and France, with emphasis on this to go. It is now known that due to persistent rainfall, a large proportion of the potatoes have not been harvested. The result is a change in mood and thus the market price. While PCA/Fiwap quoted an average of €40 per 2023 kilos for Fontane and Challenger in week 9 for the 100 harvest year, less than fifteen weeks later (quotation January 16) this is €25.
So what the coming potato season will bring is, like all years, still a black box. It is clear that the world looks different in terms of potato cultivation and sales than it did just a short time (one to two years) ago, as can be seen from the contact prices of chip processors in the EU-4 countries for the 2024 harvest year.