If potato prices rise sharply in a few months, there will often be a period in which the market needs to catch its breath. When the dust has settled and everything has been sorted out, it can be determined how to proceed.
Now, in the third week of March, it is certainly not the case that the market will only continue to rise. In fact, the market tends to decline somewhat. Belgapom recorded unchanged Friday, March 22, at €35,00 for both Fontane and Challenger, but the mood was described as 'bland'. That could mean that the listing could be lower next week. A possible price decline is not yet visible in the German REKA quotation on Friday, March 22. The most current transactions on the PAT list also indicate prices for immediate delivery between €35 (Fontane) and €38 (Innovator). On Monday, a Fontane transaction on the PAT of €30 was reported for PotatoNL, alongside a similar volume and variety at €37,50. The significant outlier was promptly included in the PotatoNL. The fact that such anomalous and market (mood) distorting transactions do not raise questions should at least raise questions, but there does not seem to be any interest in this.
Stimulate
Back to a tried and tested scenario of 'shaking the tree'. Sellers who inquired about the possibilities for doing business, especially last week, were often told that buyers were temporarily absent from the market. This in combination with a lower futures market quotation (from €38 back to €35) and also, for example, the communicated mood (bland) in the Belgapom quotation fuels the unrest. Also wanting to bid on potatoes, but not for delivery in April - which was possible until recently - but now for delivery in June indicates that the market has started to decline somewhat. Are no or fewer potatoes needed? Certainly not, but by bringing the market to a higher price level of, say, an average of €40 per 100 kilos, no more raw materials will be released, in fact suppliers will become even more reluctant.
By creating a counter situation, which creates uncertainty, reinforced by the spring argument but also by the onion price, which is under considerable pressure, more growers are changing tack. So do business for Fontane at €40, but for delivery in June. In itself still not a bad deal for the grower, but different than expected at the beginning of this month. The buyer, on the other hand, creates some scope for later in the storage season. Conclusion: little has changed in the potato market compared to a month ago, but the idea that the market price could only increase is not there for the time being, which means that the temperature feels clearly different in April, which is important for paying for potatoes.