Potato price impasse finally broken

You could place a ruler along the Belgian and French chip potato quotations over the past three months. In mid-February, the price level for Fontane was set at €35 per 100 kilos. Until this week, buyers had not deviated from this price. This will change at the beginning of May with an increase of €5 per 100 kilos.

Dutch price is lagging behind
The German Reka listing already made a first step at the end of April, reaching €37 for the largest European chip potato variety. That in itself is striking, given that the German potato quotation is normally following and not leading. The only different line is that of the PotatoNL. At the end of March, the Fontane price managed to rise slightly, only to be put back in its cage. On Monday, May 6, €38,50 appeared on the plates. 'Our' potato price lags behind that of the Belgians and French, who set a price for the current week. The €40 level should therefore also be announced in the Netherlands next week.

This shows somewhat the same picture as last spring. Even then it was difficult to start planting. Particularly in Belgium and Northern France, just as is the case now. The fact is that the situation is currently more dire. Think of extreme precipitation and the shortage of seed potatoes. Early potatoes could not be planted until late, or have not even been planted yet. It is also clear to processors that an early harvest does not need to be rained on, meaning that the potato puzzle will require an extra month to complete. Given the stocks in Western Europe, this does not have to be a problem, but this is offset by high consumption thanks to excellent demand.

Futures market
Another factor that takes into account the pricing policy is the settlement of the April 2024 contract on the futures market. Price changes no longer affect the cash settlement, which was even slightly reduced during settlement. This opened up the way to the top, which was clearly reflected in the European market segment.

Belgian farmers are the most affected in Western Europe, judging by the weather maps. Huge amounts of rain have fallen since the beginning of October last year. That tap is still not turned off. "Between October 15 and April 30, 900 millimeters of water fell in parts of Flanders," says Pieter van Oost from the Boerenbond advocate against Vilt.be. "That is more than what normally falls in a whole year. It results in a very high groundwater level."

France slightly drier
In (Northern) France, arable farmers have fared slightly better. It is also wet here - especially along the coastal regions - but they were spared the worst precipitation. In April, between 50 and 75 millimeters of water fell. The beginning of May was also not very dry. However, this is less than the 80 to 125 millimeters that fell locally in Belgium and the Netherlands. It makes sowing and planting a chore in all areas.

Is €40 the maximum? Long term keepers are stuck in the match. Especially those who have mechanical cooling and a good quality product at home. Amounts of up to €60 from last year are still fresh in our minds. But pride can come before a fall. Unfortunately, experience has been gained in the onion market again this season. With rising outside temperatures, there are also cells, cooled with outside air, that will soon have to be said goodbye. Processors are also probably taking it easy, although experience shows that once the genie is out of the bottle, an upward movement is sometimes difficult to stop.

Prices up to €45
There are signals in the market that higher amounts are also being offered for Fontane. This mainly concerns the export market, although a processor 'in need' can also play a role in this. Insiders report that amounts of up to €45 for Fontane will be paid for delivery in early June. Say, a euro storage premium per week. If potatoes are recorded for this purpose – and parties report the transactions properly – then the market has a dot on the horizon. The price for the 'excess kilos' is currently €40, with the further course of the planting season being a leading factor in price formation.